NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68e15003612c4aedc8fb7a49c76d7792fb7aa9e18d8b6179d3b32f73232ed24f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,536 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 731.17$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.74 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 32c | 624.56$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.01 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 52c | 614.7$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.35 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 57c | 600.45$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.45 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 53c | 569$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.94 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 46c | 497.88$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.33 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 68c | 483.82$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.82 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 53c | 354.62$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.17 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 53c | 315$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 30c | 314.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 46c | 305.89$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.59 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 170.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Over | 47c | 144.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 50c | 138.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 55c | 108.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…d1c9backed Over | 61c | 99.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…3728backed Over | 51c | 94.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 91.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 88.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 40c | 64.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Over | 54c | 55.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 28c | 50.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 41c | 42.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 58c | 38.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…e173backed Over | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 54c | 29.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Over | 63c | 23.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 65c | 15.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. OilersLightning won
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.