NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d0ddd84ea1d25e12216ad5a86a7f68ebabaff0bb7f1f11785a39d041b828d46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,590 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 36c | 2,035$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.71 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Under | 66c | 1,904$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.07 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 1,077$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 67c | 668.52$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.76 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 34c | 527.18$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 29c | 433.47$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 65c | 429$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 64c | 403$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 80c | 243$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 67c | 240.7$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 64c | 149$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 68c | 115$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 64c | 98.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…a39dbacked Under | 68c | 96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 79c | 82.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 28c | 76.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Under | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 25c | 58.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 65c | 58.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Over | 27c | 55.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 66c | 51.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 30c | 51.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…f793backed Under | 73c | 50.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Over | 33c | 33.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…1a15backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…e905backed Under | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5this page
- Lightning vs. OilersLightning won
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.