NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcedb77e71e31afa3386d334b93c77c53be39c55ac6e8162c1cfd8989de43d933
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Oilers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,116 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Lightning | 34c | 21,912$7,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,461.76 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Oilers | 66c | 19,178$12,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,657.76 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Lightning | 35c | 4,500$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,944.18 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Oilers | 66c | 4,123$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718.92 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oilers | 65c | 2,793$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.26 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Oilers | 66c | 2,283$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.86 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Lightning | 34c | 1,522$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.43 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Oilers | 66c | 1,300$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Lightning | 34c | 985.29$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.29 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning | 33c | 830.87$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.68 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Oilers | 67c | 599.98$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.94 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Lightning | 34c | 588$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.08 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Oilers | 67c | 497$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.99 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Lightning | 56c | 458.19$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.96 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Lightning | 35c | 449.43$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.13 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Lightning | 34c | 407$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.62 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Oilers | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Oilers | 55c | 369.15$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Oilers | 65c | 367.12$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.63 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lightning | 45c | 286.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.38 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oilers | 37c | 275.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 32c | 273.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.13 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Lightning | 30c | 228$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Lightning | 34c | 225$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Lightning | 33c | 212.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Oilers | 80c | 210.18$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.14 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Lightning | 33c | 158.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…39e2backed Oilers | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Oilers | 68c | 145$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Oilers | 40c | 143.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Oilers | 67c | 140$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Lightning | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Oilers | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Oilers | 68c | 103.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Oilers | 67c | 101.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a0…1ad0backed Oilers | 28c | 100.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Lightning | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 61c | 97.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Lightning | 33c | 92.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…b01ebacked Oilers | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Oilers | 65c | 77.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed Oilers | 67c | 77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…dbd2backed Oilers | 45c | 75.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…c12ebacked Oilers | 66c | 74.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Lightning | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Lightning | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Lightning | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Oilers | 66c | 59.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Lightning | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Lightning | 71c | 54.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning | 34c | 54.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Oilers | 66c | 50.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Oilers | 66c | 49.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Lightning | 33c | 48.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Lightning | 67c | 44.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Lightning | 33c | 43.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Lightning | 47c | 39.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Lightning | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Oilers | 65c | 32.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Oilers | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…0901backed Oilers | 67c | 31.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lightning | 34c | 31.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Lightning | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Oilers | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Oilers | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Oilers | 66c | 25.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Oilers | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Lightning | 64c | 23.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Oilers | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…52debacked Oilers | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Lightning | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Oilers | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. OilersLightning won
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.