TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9ddd…ccbd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: MLB, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 56 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.62
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$189.77
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.98
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$133.98
Timberwolves vs. Pistonsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.43
Bulls vs. Netsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$61.9
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+88.7%+$154.71
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+85.2%+$80.25
Raptors vs. Magicbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$212.23
Rockets vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$48.24
Spurs vs. Rocketsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+113.4%+$196.17
Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$89.7
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+163.2%+$128.96
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.27
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5)backed Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.33
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.76
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Miami Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.11
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteersbacked Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.7
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$67.24
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawksbacked Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+151.6%+$348.71
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrieversbacked UMBC Retrievers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.96
Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. VCU Ramsbacked Loyola Chicago Ramblers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$128.23
Buffalo Bulls vs. Miami (OH) RedHawksbacked Buffalo Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Columbia Lions vs. Brown Bearsbacked Columbia Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+75.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$109.18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.