TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Thunder, Rockets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,435,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,483,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,435,650 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Thunder47c676,392$317,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317,562.9187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Rockets53c300,000$159,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,0008961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Rockets51c279,495$143,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136,142.31,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Thunder47c150,000$70,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,344.925154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Rockets53c148,614$78,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,848.782,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Thunder51c125,000$63,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,65040446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Thunder48c106,895$50,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,809.623920.5%8 W · 31 L-11.0wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-58.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Rockets53c64,237$34,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,106.832,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Rockets53c50,000$26,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,50060351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets53c49,274$26,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,210.789,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Rockets53c45,000$23,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,15024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Rockets52c40,000$20,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,2001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Rockets53c40,000$21,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,80051844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec1…057cbacked Rockets54c37,000$19,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,0203946.2%18 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Rockets53c29,879$15,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,043.131,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Thunder47c26,340$12,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,379.817251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rockets52c13,487$6,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,531.682,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fa0…a83abacked Thunder43c11,816$5,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,080.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Rockets53c11,542$6,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,430.31,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf4b…9484backed Rockets57c11,473$6,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,933.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Rockets53c11,132$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,232.0838750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Rockets51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Thunder47c8,566$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00026640.2%107 W · 159 L+1.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddd6…cf80backed Thunder44c8,428$3,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,708.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Rockets53c8,179$4,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,820.931,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d8…bd4dbacked Rockets50c7,950$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,975450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c4…8faebacked Rockets56c7,578$4,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,334.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+95.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder47c7,140$3,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,373.386,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Thunder50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe855…fba9backed Rockets51c5,665$2,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,775.711163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder47c5,547$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.714,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Rockets56c5,403$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.9376746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Rockets49c5,252$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.7342648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Rockets54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30021250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Rockets52c5,000$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.962343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Thunder51c4,797$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.6766646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Rockets56c4,464$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.2910045%45 W · 55 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xef19…c4d4backed Rockets56c4,023$2,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Thunder46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.9820744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Thunder49c3,821$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.471,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rockets53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.581,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c2…914bbacked Thunder44c3,705$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce0…1ba1backed Rockets57c3,696$2,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba9…3175backed Thunder43c3,612$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Rockets50c3,600$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80019445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Thunder47c3,600$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,69233945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Rockets52c3,464$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.1532150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4059…370cbacked Thunder47c3,342$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.1330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Rockets50c3,235$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.041,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Rockets52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Rockets53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder48c2,935$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.524,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e7…b945backed Rockets53c2,919$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.871070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+43.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3258…dab8backed Rockets56c2,897$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x336f…1511backed Thunder44c2,647$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c33…28fbbacked Rockets57c2,607$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Thunder49c2,511$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.272,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209b…2e0dbacked Rockets56c2,109$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Rockets53c1,971$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.5737747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Rockets51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7829347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9992…f33abacked Thunder43c1,927$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa63c…27a4backed Thunder46c1,890$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.43737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec8c…6927backed Thunder44c1,858$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Thunder46c1,850$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85114663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21cd…db23backed Rockets57c1,835$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c73…7171backed Thunder43c1,797$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder50c1,603$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.23,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder48c1,600$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.73,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Rockets55c1,160$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52210251%52 W · 50 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Rockets53c1,157$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.5118747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Thunder46c1,146$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.1610642.5%45 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Thunder44c1,090$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.671547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder51c1,078$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Thunder51c1,000$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50552844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Rockets53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4704146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Rockets55c912.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.9112048.3%58 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Rockets55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0917241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Rockets55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0927158.3%158 W · 113 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Thunder59c909.06$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.1716943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f8c…d7e8backed Rockets56c854.22$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets53c800.66$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.863,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a2e…2c24backed Thunder44c787.13$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets45c778.27$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.98,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Rockets55c654.33$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.8880653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Rockets52c633$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.8485147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Rockets53c630$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29591050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Thunder46c619.72$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.0717250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Thunder49c618.84$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.232339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Thunder48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28815849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Thunder51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30614358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Thunder48c581$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.881,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e5…697abacked Thunder51c509.8$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26020650%103 W · 103 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Rockets54c505.05$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.3241947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Thunder45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53aa…07fcbacked Thunder47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2359051.1%46 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Thunder48c472.07$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Rockets54c470$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.215154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d1e…effebacked Rockets53c440$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.88252.4%43 W · 39 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Thunder44c400$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.466645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.