TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Rockets, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,649 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Rockets39c503.65$194 inLost-$194.135,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c6c…ce09backed Thunder61c327.87$200 inWon+$127.8712865.6%84 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Rockets39c248.76$97 inLost-$97.0248956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Thunder61c170.98$104 inWon+$66.685040%20 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Rockets41c160$66 inLost-$65.69560%57 W · 38 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed Rockets41c144$59 inLost-$59.048752.9%46 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Thunder54c100$54 inWon+$462,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf24…1208backed Thunder40c72.5$29 inWon+$43.59328%26 W · 67 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Thunder43c50$22 inWon+$28.543246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Rockets40c43$17 inLost-$17.210143.6%44 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Thunder59c40$24 inWon+$16.43959%23 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaebc…bb17backed Thunder59c40$24 inWon+$16.43458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1313…866abacked Thunder59c40$24 inWon+$16.44652.2%24 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14cd…1716backed Thunder59c40$24 inWon+$16.43759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Thunder59c37$22 inWon+$15.175448.1%26 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed Thunder59c28$17 inWon+$11.484252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda6e…e417backed Thunder59c23$14 inWon+$9.433548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d1b…854dbacked Thunder60c22$13 inWon+$8.81968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f96…92e0backed Thunder59c21$12 inWon+$8.612642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56d2…e5f5backed Thunder60c21$13 inWon+$8.42560%15 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x870f…08ebbacked Thunder59c18$11 inWon+$7.383171%22 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7483…96a6backed Thunder59c17$10 inWon+$6.974746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.