TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Thunder, Rockets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$989,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,046,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $989,350 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Thunder52c678,105$354,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354,358.2517251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Rockets48c443,707$211,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232,193.531,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Rockets48c100,000$48,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,00048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Rockets48c78,084$37,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,603.6844352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Rockets51c40,000$20,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,70051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder51c38,999$19,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,889.491,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets49c20,898$10,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,708.819,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Rockets55c19,996$10,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,0481,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730f…952cbacked Thunder46c17,132$7,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,880.611566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Rockets49c16,644$8,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,520.032,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rockets48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,8002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder49c13,859$6,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,805.264,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Thunder45c13,573$6,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,12617454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d2…d3ebbacked Rockets54c12,641$6,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,814.712050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder48c12,113$5,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,789.392,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Rockets48c11,932$5,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,187.583,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets48c10,388$4,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,450.298,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa16d…0e34backed Thunder46c10,162$4,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,674.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Thunder50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Thunder52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.821250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Rockets54c10,000$5,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,606.0777348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e87…4999backed Rockets54c9,751$5,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,485.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+99%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e7…b945backed Rockets49c9,547$4,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,868.941070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+43.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Thunder51c9,088$4,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,634.7592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets49c8,417$4,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,321.226,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder55c8,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Rockets48c6,940$3,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,608.5837747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Rockets46c6,653$3,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,560.393,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Thunder46c5,435$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,51170246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Rockets49c4,898$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.9638750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x190a…6ae2backed Rockets54c4,491$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.861266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+35%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Rockets49c4,490$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,289.821943.4%95 W · 124 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8535…6b49backed Rockets54c4,116$2,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Thunder46c4,021$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.6929352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e8c…0f78backed Thunder46c3,975$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked Rockets45c3,966$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.5410048%48 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Thunder50c3,206$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb7…1da9backed Rockets54c2,906$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…6133backed Thunder46c2,802$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cea…b12dbacked Rockets51c2,289$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.466741.8%28 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets50c2,136$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.723,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Rockets50c2,114$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.8182442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa778…dc08backed Rockets54c2,054$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3edf…9662backed Thunder46c1,921$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Thunder52c1,644$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.6346145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5a…9042backed Thunder50c1,636$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder49c1,632$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.681,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Thunder49c1,502$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73626544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Rockets47c1,313$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.775843.1%25 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Rockets45c1,100$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60523052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44e…87aebacked Thunder46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1c0…427bbacked Rockets48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52018446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad40…a697backed Thunder54c1,000$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.944454.5%24 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ad…679dbacked Rockets54c861.64$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder51c855.92$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.522,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff85…053dbacked Thunder46c829.41$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Thunder45c810$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.595651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Thunder46c810$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.658951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Thunder45c767$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.1554747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cca…6143backed Rockets53c766.66$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.8541550.1%208 W · 207 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Rockets48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26076250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Rockets56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22020754.1%112 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Rockets49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25543544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53aa…07fcbacked Rockets50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2509051.1%46 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Rockets51c499.99$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.8750653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Rockets51c499.98$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.1789050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Rockets49c448.76$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.841,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Thunder47c447.38$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.271,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Rockets50c431.59$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.1792750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Rockets49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.161,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Thunder45c404.44$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18247354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Thunder50c400.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1425049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd5…9c28backed Rockets48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20810445.2%47 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Rockets48c340.5$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.0621937%81 W · 138 L-15.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Thunder49c311.94$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8551146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Thunder47c293.7$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0491148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder49c268.1$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.32,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Rockets48c254.17$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1768542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Thunder49c204.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9963447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Rockets48c200$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6262844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Thunder51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10053453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder47c163.13$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.893,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Rockets46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8135444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Thunder50c147.06$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.534351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x960e…77d6backed Thunder50c145.22$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.613953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Rockets47c138.36$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6840849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Thunder46c130.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8224744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Thunder50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6024250.8%123 W · 119 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Thunder51c113.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.91,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Rockets48c108.33$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3314450.7%73 W · 71 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Thunder49c107.04$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.655642.9%24 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Thunder48c101.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5753043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Thunder46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Rockets48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5232743.4%142 W · 185 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Thunder48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4849351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Thunder55c96.18$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3666646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b2…5759backed Rockets53c93.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70bb…09b8backed Thunder48c93.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eca…6882backed Thunder47c93.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4415936.5%58 W · 101 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.