TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$276,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$278,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Over50c110,000$54,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,2655154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Under50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under53c41,797$21,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,964.251,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under50c37,500$18,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,8752,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Over49c31,273$15,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,948.9887451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Under51c30,000$15,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,30051844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under51c18,292$9,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,248.829,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f6…4535backed Over50c18,112$9,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,994.114355.8%24 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Over50c16,974$8,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,48725049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Over48c11,110$5,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,777.292753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under51c10,407$5,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,304.192,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Over49c10,100$4,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,15121549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Over47c5,106$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.3838750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Under50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…97debacked Over50c4,566$2,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under52c3,066$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.476,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Under51c2,766$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.5132846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Under54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35041553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under51c2,425$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.663,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Under52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04021446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under54c1,568$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.721,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under51c1,526$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.053,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over51c977.07$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.783,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Over48c938.17$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.8566646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over51c882.34$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.42,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under57c827$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.18,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe855…fba9backed Under51c784.31$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe256…1f43backed Under51c784.31$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under53c747$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9185147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed Over36c490$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.64151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Under32c487.5$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15614636.3%53 W · 93 L+16.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+58.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over47c399.99$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.9980744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over50c316$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15862347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Under53c309.33$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9441652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over47c300$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15891148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Over50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.454351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c6c…ce09backed Over74c272.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0712865.6%84 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed0…c618backed Over44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.271127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-40.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0853453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Over51c196.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4311157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under53c188.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5974…2a69backed Under54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under50c145.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.71,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over52c143.92$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.713,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Under54c125$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.510348.5%50 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under53c121$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.132,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabc2…46c4backed Over32c109.63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+208.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe09c…d04fbacked Over49c102$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.023852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5491050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Over49c98.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6841050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Under53c94.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.995642.9%24 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed Under52c88.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6417155.6%95 W · 76 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7171…81f7backed Over50c84.14$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.072564%16 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under55c72.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Over45c72.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4048956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Over50c54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2741048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over48c52.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.374,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2659141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Under51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.543544.6%194 W · 241 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Under53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.532346.4%150 W · 173 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Under53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6243246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over46c43.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.845,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under36c39.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1655846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd885…c666backed Over51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.222759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under53c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under52c34.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.191,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under52c33.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2245460.4%274 W · 180 L+21.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee07…3573backed Over60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.337159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Over50c32.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1221645.8%99 W · 117 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fe…9d83backed Over50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under49c26.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8387453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Under51c25.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8520456.4%115 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Under54c22.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9825143%108 W · 143 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf54b…8a63backed Over48c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4411444.7%51 W · 63 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8bd…6504backed Under51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…9f62backed Under51c19.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0414352.4%75 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under53c19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0752240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Under56c17.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0718957.1%108 W · 81 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.