TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 105.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$657
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$707

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $657 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x617b…a499backed Under48c171.65$82 inWon+$89.2687750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca4a…338abacked Over52c166.85$87 inLost-$86.765855.2%32 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Over47c98$46 inLost-$46.067651.3%39 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Over48c95$46 inLost-$45.69050%45 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Over49c92$45 inLost-$45.089560%57 W · 38 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6468…e03dbacked Under53c38$20 inWon+$17.863053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Under52c36$19 inWon+$17.285448.1%26 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60dc…9a3ebacked Under52c29$15 inWon+$13.922470.8%17 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+34.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x34b2…cec2backed Under53c28$15 inWon+$13.163351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Under51c23$12 inWon+$11.273959%23 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…9b15backed Under51c23$12 inWon+$11.276157.4%35 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd84f…0475backed Under51c23$12 inWon+$11.273250%16 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2e…8b4bbacked Under51c23$12 inWon+$11.273860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe1…e560backed Under53c21$11 inWon+$9.874161%25 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda6e…e417backed Under52c20$10 inWon+$9.63548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.