TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$506,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$533,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $506,827 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb59…1d47backed New York Mets37c69,123$25,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,785.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1de3…a1fabacked Washington Nationals39c49,860$19,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,614.933020%6 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked New York Mets64c30,000$19,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,199.9777053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals36c28,291$10,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,087.344,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals66c27,958$18,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,423.9310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals77c21,289$16,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,981.944,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Washington Nationals35c20,726$7,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,411.261,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed New York Mets64c19,998$12,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,897.1151756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals52c18,372$9,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,765.7412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed New York Mets63c15,638$9,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,851.9931149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc1…b33cbacked New York Mets63c15,555$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,799.6526056.9%148 W · 112 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Washington Nationals33c12,573$4,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,450.441,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d7…1252backed Washington Nationals76c12,380$9,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,971.25580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals51c12,162$6,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,930.192,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed New York Mets43c11,011$4,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,720.8831039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Washington Nationals43c10,465$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,965.121,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed New York Mets58c6,897$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00036047.5%171 W · 189 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Washington Nationals66c6,551$4,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.6522047.7%105 W · 115 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc630…107bbacked New York Mets54c6,243$3,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,389.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets49c6,122$3,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,025.956,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked New York Mets65c5,720$3,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,71812247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets69c5,654$3,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,923.451,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets63c4,372$2,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,754.515,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets65c4,116$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,654.663,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets38c3,756$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.788,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Washington Nationals37c3,714$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,342.931,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Washington Nationals54c3,633$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.551,14043%490 W · 650 L-37.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked New York Mets57c3,478$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.8848850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Nationals74c3,351$2,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.262,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Washington Nationals36c3,333$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.3319250%96 W · 96 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Nationals36c3,267$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.8892054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4738…4687backed New York Mets16c3,125$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005149%25 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc689…5250backed New York Mets64c3,000$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.994562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked New York Mets32c2,967$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.466845.6%31 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed New York Mets35c2,779$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.91,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals76c2,512$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.041,72250.3%867 W · 855 L+55.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals68c2,443$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.018,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Washington Nationals36c2,355$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.173956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals61c2,122$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.053,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Washington Nationals68c2,009$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.771,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Washington Nationals37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26026759.2%158 W · 109 L+17.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked New York Mets64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.9933852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed New York Mets64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.9927451.8%142 W · 132 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Washington Nationals58c1,928$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.171,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed New York Mets59c1,753$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.0285135.8%305 W · 546 L-23.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets47c1,694$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.639,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4a2…6fc8backed New York Mets64c1,500$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9602740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3464…8112backed New York Mets64c1,415$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.631926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed New York Mets33c1,388$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.5675244%331 W · 421 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Washington Nationals37c1,354$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.0525149.8%125 W · 126 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdda3…b20cbacked Washington Nationals70c1,273$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.8418449.5%91 W · 93 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets64c1,200$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.986,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Washington Nationals32c1,194$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.4816132.3%52 W · 109 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Washington Nationals70c1,158$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.447589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed New York Mets65c1,156$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.681,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Washington Nationals19c1,100$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89125240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Washington Nationals54c1,057$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.2221842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed New York Mets65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65012640.5%51 W · 75 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6502,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c67…1075backed Washington Nationals54c880$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.65172.5%37 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals76c846.98$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.525,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked New York Mets64c824$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.363748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Washington Nationals67c822$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.2653261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed New York Mets64c781.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005433.3%18 W · 36 L-9.2wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Mets31c714.52$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.291,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb267…d710backed New York Mets28c678.08$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.171942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed New York Mets38c664.78$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.3837941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked New York Mets20c656.94$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5633515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Mets77c603$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.544,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked New York Mets65c600$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed New York Mets41c586.14$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.150337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked New York Mets16c530$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.822831.6%72 W · 156 L-0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Washington Nationals39c512.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8224950.6%126 W · 123 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked New York Mets2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11290%0 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked New York Mets2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11400%0 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Washington Nationals67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16526857.8%155 W · 113 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked New York Mets52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked New York Mets2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111365.9%8 W · 128 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed New York Mets2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11756.7%5 W · 70 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets59c478.15$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.551,91153.1%1,014 W · 897 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed New York Mets39c444.4$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2415037.3%56 W · 94 L-15.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Washington Nationals67c417.81$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4244556.9%253 W · 192 L+27.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Washington Nationals74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4181257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Washington Nationals37c401.35$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.8537052.2%193 W · 177 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Washington Nationals36c400$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25659150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Mets63c396.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Washington Nationals34c368$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.2415243.4%66 W · 86 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Washington Nationals60c355.2$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.081,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Washington Nationals67c347.3$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6197050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked New York Mets32c333$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5694034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Washington Nationals37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18922848.2%110 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Washington Nationals32c299.64$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.4612745.7%58 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Washington Nationals40c294.36$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.4260941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Washington Nationals36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7856946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed New York Mets41c275.09$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1737143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadf3…101fbacked Washington Nationals37c274.47$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9233241.3%137 W · 195 L+1.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed New York Mets61c271.31$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.721,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e1…7e55backed Washington Nationals71c270$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.14355.8%24 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb56…7edabacked Washington Nationals70c270$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.021090%9 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick65cpaid+41.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6597…b746backed Washington Nationals38c257.92$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9125351.8%131 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.