MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabf94aa6836e55d62e30f82a98bf4aefc169a7f9949f4e6b8168be4bd5af3fe7

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Washington Nationalsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
Resolved: Apr 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,797
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,797 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xefdd…017fbacked Washington Nationals	54c	6,711$3,624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,087.12	77	55.8%43 W · 34 L	+5.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+15%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets	46c	5,200$2,372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,371.98	220	47.7%105 W · 115 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets	35c	5,069$1,789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,788.56	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals	73c	4,658$3,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,258.62	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Washington Nationals	56c	2,328$1,295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,033.06	1,909	53.5%1,021 W · 888 L	+29.1wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed New York Mets	46c	2,004$922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$922	79	34.2%27 W · 52 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets	21c	1,897$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.06	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994b…c047backed New York Mets	47c	1,580$743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.6	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals	55c	1,437$790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$646.76	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals	54c	800$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed New York Mets	33c	757.13$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.87	169	47.3%80 W · 89 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed New York Mets	46c	735.02$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.11	577	44.7%258 W · 319 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Washington Nationals	57c	702.72$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.72	141	56%79 W · 62 L	+6.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets	38c	683.06$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.56	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed New York Mets	44c	634$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.96	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2635…c47dbacked New York Mets	37c	600$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets	36c	596.67$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets	32c	576.73$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.7	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets	30c	575.1$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.06	2,389	43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed New York Mets	46c	543.48$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	308	44.2%136 W · 172 L	-10.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals	69c	495.35$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.15	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New York Mets	43c	390.63$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.97	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals	53c	353.87$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.32	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked New York Mets	44c	298.3$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.89	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals	54c	260.01$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.61	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked New York Mets	19c	221.26$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.02	524	49%257 W · 267 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets	47c	220$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.4	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Washington Nationals	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	432	47%203 W · 229 L	-19.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Washington Nationals	54c	148.15$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.15	665	51.1%340 W · 325 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed New York Mets	31c	128$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.62	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d00…7507backed New York Mets	47c	120.47$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.62	96	42.7%41 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets	39c	119.28$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.19	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f42…8680backed Washington Nationals	63c	119.05$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.05	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed New York Mets	46c	114.34$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.6	1,010	48.1%486 W · 524 L	-13.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed New York Mets	38c	103$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.61	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets	26c	100.82$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	841	22.7%191 W · 650 L	-81.4wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets	35c	98.15$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.35	1,912	53%1,014 W · 898 L	+42.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked New York Mets	47c	91.49$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	222	48.6%108 W · 114 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked New York Mets	45c	86.5$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.93	338	52.7%178 W · 160 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals	60c	76.24$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.14	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Washington Nationals	55c	73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.85	478	48.5%232 W · 246 L	-15.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets	46c	70$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.2	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0afb…9a96backed New York Mets	44c	70$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+5.2wins	+0.10per pick	42cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked New York Mets	46c	65.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.36	722	47.6%344 W · 378 L	-12.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed New York Mets	46c	65.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.35	404	46.5%188 W · 216 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals	55c	63.64$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.64	466	59.7%278 W · 188 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked New York Mets	45c	55.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	150	45.3%68 W · 82 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cc…e8c8backed Washington Nationals	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	326	47.9%156 W · 170 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed New York Mets	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	465	57.2%266 W · 199 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18d4…1d3abacked New York Mets	47c	49.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.49	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b5…a1f2backed New York Mets	46c	44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x623a…5144backed New York Mets	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-7.2wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed New York Mets	38c	41.53$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.78	1,173	29%340 W · 833 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Washington Nationals	65c	41.09$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.49	825	51.6%426 W · 399 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Washington Nationals	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	330	51.8%171 W · 159 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets	44c	34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.07	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed New York Mets	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	393	44.3%174 W · 219 L	-22.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals	65c	29.59$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.29	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1fc…5da8backed Washington Nationals	70c	25.53$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.69	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals	55c	25.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	899	50.6%455 W · 444 L	-24.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Washington Nationals	55c	25.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	137	43.8%60 W · 77 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked Washington Nationals	73c	21.92$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.92	316	50.6%160 W · 156 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7198…4213backed Washington Nationals	55c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.55	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Washington Nationals	55c	18.35$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.26	143	53.1%76 W · 67 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Washington Nationals	79c	13.98$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.92	273	54.6%149 W · 124 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsWashington Nationals won
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event