MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7306d3c240cc30b834a547a13eca990f48f63e14e3aa64fcfc1961d0927b4344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 6,245$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.46 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 53c | 3,010$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.2 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 56c | 2,555$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.8 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 2,381$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 1,480$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.69 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 44c | 1,114$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.07 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 57c | 1,097$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.02 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed Over | 44c | 1,027$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 56c | 980.16$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.89 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 54c | 891.63$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 44c | 677$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.53 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 576.88$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 71c | 534.65$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.05 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 432.54$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 289.13$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 288.1$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.11 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 227.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 179.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 71c | 164.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 76c | 163.26$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 43c | 162.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 151.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 44c | 113.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 69c | 80.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Over | 44c | 71.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…5da8backed Under | 57c | 70.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47d5…138ebacked Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 61c | 60.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Under | 27c | 58.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 36c | 55.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 66c | 48.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…839fbacked Over | 66c | 45.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 47c | 42.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 43c | 40.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 37.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 36.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 33c | 35.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 44c | 31.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 53c | 31.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 44c | 30.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 58c | 29.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 57c | 27.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 47c | 27.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 45c | 26.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 56c | 25.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed Under | 67c | 16.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.