MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x741336bc08c0dd6af5b46a33e1274d8e78230af531537a8a8e69a365346fdeca

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $142,221
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $142,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,221 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x986b…12e9backed Over	51c	100,065$51,033 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49,031.66	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Under	49c	100,000$49,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48,999.65	552	53.1%293 W · 259 L	+21.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Over	59c	15,726$9,283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,442.85	517	56.5%292 W · 225 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under	41c	8,520$3,493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,493.23	6,123	55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L	+346.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under	49c	5,000$2,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,450	479	53.2%255 W · 224 L	+18.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under	49c	4,306$2,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,130.91	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Over	51c	3,325$1,696 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,629.07	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	70c	2,878$2,021 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$857.42	8,192	46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L	+38.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	45c	2,422$1,078 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,344.03	9,819	46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L	+39.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under	19c	1,498$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.05	1,522	34.7%528 W · 994 L	+27.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	51c	1,376$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$674.37	5,471	50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under	62c	1,304$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.24	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-6.8wins	-0.19per pick	45cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under	14c	1,240$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.6	509	49.5%252 W · 257 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	71c	1,066$753 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.76	2,389	43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under	41c	719.41$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.96	1,737	49.1%852 W · 885 L	+7.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under	49c	716$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.84	274	49.3%135 W · 139 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	53c	638.72$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.2	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Under	25c	636.24$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.44	371	43.9%163 W · 208 L	-21.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under	41c	605.73$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.35	1,379	50.6%698 W · 681 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Under	41c	599.46$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.78	970	50.7%492 W · 478 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under	41c	555.93$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.93	2,588	61.5%1,591 W · 997 L	+72.3wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	41c	549.87$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.45	8,594	52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L	+508.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under	42c	520$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.61	1,630	55.2%899 W · 731 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Under	41c	508.3$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.4	1,133	57.2%648 W · 485 L	+35.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Under	50c	469.77$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.89	169	47.9%81 W · 88 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over	63c	467.24$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.35	3,219	51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L	+148.2wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under	41c	443$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.63	1,119	45.5%509 W · 610 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	30c	412.8$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.67	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under	41c	398.79$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.5	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0570…5200backed Under	41c	339.86$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.34	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Over	51c	322.58$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.79	119	61.3%73 W · 46 L	+9.8wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under	62c	320.13$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.03	301	50.8%153 W · 148 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Over	42c	258.66$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.77	169	47.3%80 W · 89 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over	58c	247.19$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.82	1,218	55.6%677 W · 541 L	+94.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	49c	235.41$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.29	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	53c	225.8$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.13	5,149	54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L	+231.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over	52c	225$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	785	50.2%394 W · 391 L	+2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Over	52c	215.53$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.45	281	54.4%153 W · 128 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under	41c	214.38$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.9	1,149	48.9%562 W · 587 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	50c	202.8$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.4	1,043	49%511 W · 532 L	+3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Under	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	591	50.3%297 W · 294 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under	41c	199.02$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.6	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	37c	196.69$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.77	1,874	52%975 W · 899 L	+51.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	1,000	52.4%524 W · 476 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Under	45c	155.56$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under	50c	149.84$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.92	541	52.1%282 W · 259 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over	63c	148.46$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.76	825	51.6%426 W · 399 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Over	50c	138.72$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.36	200	44.5%89 W · 111 L	-8.6wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a22…3652backed Over	57c	121.05$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.05	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over	39c	120$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.8	393	44.3%174 W · 219 L	-22.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under	43c	118$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.74	800	52%416 W · 384 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	54c	117$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.82	4,087	57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L	+66.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf23…dcb7backed Under	50c	116$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-5.9wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	51c	111.11$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.85	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	208	51.9%108 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc998…7b50backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	106	56.6%60 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2573…2726backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	230	51.7%119 W · 111 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Under	49c	87.76$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	222	48.6%108 W · 114 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Under	41c	85.34$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.99	447	44.1%197 W · 250 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	48c	82.62$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.66	2,995	47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L	+12.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	546	54.9%300 W · 246 L	+12.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over	51c	76.36$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.41	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf375…a60cbacked Under	49c	71.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Under	43c	71$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.53	634	54.3%344 W · 290 L	+24.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over	50c	67$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.5	575	51.7%297 W · 278 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14de…414ebacked Over	52c	65.38$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.38	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under	48c	62.97$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.23	722	47.6%344 W · 378 L	-12.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1434…d63bbacked Under	49c	62.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Over	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	68	55.9%38 W · 30 L	+5.0wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Over	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	428	49.1%210 W · 218 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e83…b22fbacked Under	41c	53.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.13	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd330…c12dbacked Under	41c	53.88$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.09	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1fc…5da8backed Under	43c	51.15$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cb…3636backed Under	41c	44.76$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	84	60.7%51 W · 33 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c20…42a1backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	49c	39.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d43…d0ddbacked Over	53c	36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.1	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over	64c	34.09$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.35	1,269	47.4%602 W · 667 L	-31.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over	50c	27.43$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.72	1,057	50.2%531 W · 526 L	+23.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42ac…2096backed Under	41c	26.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	68	51.5%35 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under	52c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	1,374	54.2%745 W · 629 L	+16.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Over	47c	23.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.8	194	42.3%82 W · 112 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e35…a348backed Under	49c	22.04$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Over	73c	19.3$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.12	25	72%18 W · 7 L	+3.3wins	+0.13per pick	59cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Over	78c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.52	162	74.1%120 W · 42 L	+9.6wins	+0.06per pick	68cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsWashington Nationals won
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event