TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Raptors, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,386,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,632,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,386,129 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,834 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Raptors45c215,761$96,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,535.522,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Magic55c186,387$101,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,738.1151844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic54c156,369$84,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,929.5787144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Magic52c126,044$65,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,407.6740446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Raptors44c105,000$46,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,199.9823257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Raptors46c100,000$46,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,999.979043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Raptors0c90,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Magic56c90,000$50,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,599.9543148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Magic56c88,767$49,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,057.463534.3%12 W · 23 L-6.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors44c80,000$35,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,199.971,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Raptors23c77,403$17,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,918.621,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Raptors45c61,718$27,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,555.183920.5%8 W · 31 L-11.0wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-58.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic55c60,918$33,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,413.111,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Magic56c53,254$29,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,431.6514358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors46c51,719$24,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,008.212,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Magic56c45,000$25,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,80027747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Raptors46c43,303$19,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,787.5217441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Raptors46c40,010$18,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,302.1955346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Raptors45c33,339$15,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,002.615347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Raptors44c30,000$13,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,099.9515247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Magic56c30,000$16,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,199.8914243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Magic54c26,523$14,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,194.722,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc311…44fcbacked Raptors48c26,171$12,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,502.353135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Raptors0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Magic52c23,594$12,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,325.0372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Magic56c23,000$12,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,12059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Raptors44c22,700$9,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,98859347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Raptors47c22,646$10,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,553.931,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed Magic55c22,000$12,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9005648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic59c21,328$12,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,752.85,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81c…9ac5backed Magic56c21,000$11,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic41c20,174$8,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,846.673,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Magic53c20,063$10,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,429.4511252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Raptors8c20,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60048347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Raptors44c20,000$8,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,9001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Magic53c20,000$10,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,399.9619653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors47c19,145$9,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,093.412,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Raptors51c17,771$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0003938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Raptors21c17,000$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5101,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ef1…6c53backed Magic56c16,731$9,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,361.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Raptors47c15,917$7,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,433.1836741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic54c15,739$8,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,209.374,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Magic52c15,437$8,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,414.1835450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Magic55c15,000$8,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,734.8231445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Raptors44c15,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,60045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x869f…7a8bbacked Magic57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4504052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Raptors45c14,450$6,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,528.7736950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Raptors47c14,000$6,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5809054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c9…cd97backed Magic53c14,000$7,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,579.898640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors45c13,333$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Magic56c13,320$7,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,860.821549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic43c13,119$5,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,503.491,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic55c13,013$7,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,887.061,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Raptors48c12,446$5,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,97444352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Raptors46c12,187$5,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,555.7830845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Magic31c12,037$3,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,305.2552460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Raptors45c11,743$5,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,257.43,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Raptors60c11,127$6,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,685.6339842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Magic56c10,900$6,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,795.9824549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Magic50c10,245$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,124.921944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed Raptors45c10,028$4,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,510.67441.9%31 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a4…0aadbacked Raptors0c10,020$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Magic55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Raptors44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Magic53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70015349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Raptors46c10,000$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,56032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raptors45c9,455$4,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,207.672,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors53c9,408$5,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,014.678,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Raptors46c8,696$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Raptors46c8,557$3,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,978.5840350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Raptors47c8,389$3,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,974.6528742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x769c…5c05backed Raptors45c8,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.975354.7%29 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Magic38c7,633$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,753.0889444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Raptors45c7,500$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,374.9987750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Raptors48c7,427$3,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,562.8161851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Raptors44c7,212$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20011747%55 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic56c7,015$3,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.081,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Magic54c7,000$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,22015844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Magic60c6,964$4,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,764.348956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Magic55c6,900$3,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,10510035%35 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9315…a744backed Raptors45c6,900$3,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1056767.2%45 W · 22 L+10.7wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+31.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Raptors46c6,808$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.3835747.1%168 W · 189 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Raptors47c6,767$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,180.4913239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79fa…c810backed Raptors47c6,392$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.01714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Raptors46c6,357$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.0328649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Magic52c6,101$3,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,928.4414055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8b…77d4backed Raptors47c6,100$2,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,866.8911244.6%50 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Raptors47c6,065$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.062,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e1…b37bbacked Raptors47c6,018$2,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,816.2916550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Raptors4c6,006$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0681845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Raptors46c5,970$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.9730947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Magic56c5,874$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.627848.7%38 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Raptors35c5,726$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d8…6589backed Magic55c5,600$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic54c5,196$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,366.189,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f4…02ebbacked Raptors45c5,149$2,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…5d02backed Magic55c5,136$2,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325e…cb5dbacked Raptors47c5,100$2,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3971540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29ff…3096backed Raptors68c5,100$3,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,468366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+14.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc268…7086backed Magic32c5,100$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.