NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b5fe495e4eefb6c6e5be15cc76904fda13961043676ad34dc8f39fe5065d2bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Magic | 50c | 12,057$6,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,046.7 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Raptors | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 49c | 9,161$4,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,679.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic | 50c | 9,000$4,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,461.43 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…35efbacked Raptors | 51c | 5,634$2,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,873.4 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Raptors | 50c | 5,100$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.01 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Raptors | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Magic | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Raptors | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Raptors | 50c | 1,815$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.64 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Raptors | 49c | 1,750$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.98 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.17 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors | 68c | 1,631$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.79 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Raptors | 50c | 1,308$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 49c | 1,206$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.79 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Raptors | 52c | 578.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 50c | 493.65$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.87 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Raptors | 27c | 390.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…cb95backed Raptors | 51c | 352.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Magic | 51c | 262.53$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 35c | 211.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Magic | 49c | 205.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Magic | 55c | 205$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Raptors | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Magic | 49c | 155.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 48c | 146.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c1…7decbacked Raptors | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 49c | 125.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9456…44b1backed Magic | 48c | 124.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic | 53c | 114.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…dedebacked Raptors | 52c | 109.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Raptors | 43c | 104.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Raptors | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Raptors | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Magic | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Magic | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 48c | 59.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Raptors | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Magic | 51c | 57.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Raptors | 51c | 55.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Raptors | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Raptors | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Raptors | 51c | 49.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raptors | 52c | 46.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Raptors | 53c | 44.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…2d6ebacked Magic | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Magic | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Raptors | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Raptors | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Raptors | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c54…da2cbacked Magic | 48c | 37.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Raptors | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Raptors | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Raptors | 50c | 34.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 139 | 45.3%63 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Magic | 49c | 32.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Raptors | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Raptors | 50c | 31.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Magic | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Raptors | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 50c | 27.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Raptors | 58c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Raptors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Raptors vs. MagicMagic won
- Raptors vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Magic: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 218.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 221.5Over won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.