NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fcdba228b185caaad88f973dd17e7ec901351454f79774d41bf8e14e8c19173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 9,575$4,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,627.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 219 | 43.4%95 W · 124 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 52c | 3,866$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.68 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 3,647$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.23 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 47c | 2,687$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 2,679$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.09 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Under | 50c | 2,540$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.24 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 51c | 2,296$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.23 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 53c | 2,039$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.06 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Under | 49c | 2,020$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.95 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,896$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.2 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 52c | 1,728$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.44 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 1,552$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 1,527$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.37 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 1,404$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.98 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Under | 49c | 759.18$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 55c | 560.49$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.72 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…f6dcbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 47c | 344$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.68 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 48c | 227$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 14c | 184.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Over | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 50c | 173.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…27e3backed Under | 49c | 152.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 45c | 142.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 57c | 138.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 122.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 32c | 68.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…7c6bbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 52c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 53c | 43.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…2d9cbacked Over | 70c | 37.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 47c | 36.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…083fbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…d630backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Over | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Over | 54c | 19.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 218.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Raptors vs. MagicMagic won
- Raptors vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Magic: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 221.5Over won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.