NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x671f035ffb509ea829b160f1362c9b1b95025302fd7a4d6ac8bdd1aef137db75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Raptors | 53c | 727.53$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.36 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Magic | 54c | 717.39$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.39 | 310 | 44.8%139 W · 171 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Raptors | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Raptors | 47c | 387.53$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.39 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 53c | 377.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.09 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Raptors | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Magic | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Magic | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 52c | 103.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…37eabacked Raptors | 48c | 96.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…4275backed Raptors | 40c | 74.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 53c | 40.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Magic | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Raptors | 47c | 33.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…a0ebbacked Magic | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Magic: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-1.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Raptors vs. MagicMagic won
- Raptors vs. Magic: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 218.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 221.5Over won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.