TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seahawksof Seahawks, Patriots
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,320,743
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,441,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,320,743 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,648 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Seahawks51c2,000,000$1,013,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986,674.7530043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa41…a7a1backed Patriots50c1,993,281$1,000,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000,562.18837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Patriots49c1,455,366$716,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716,738.5712055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Seahawks50c1,200,000$597,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602,5007554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a55…f9bebacked Patriots50c803,217$403,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403,384.831428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Patriots49c791,226$390,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390,613.1353253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Patriots48c590,882$284,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284,325.641662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Patriots49c414,992$202,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,696.355152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Seahawks51c345,998$176,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169,539.0253348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Seahawks51c255,853$129,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,966.641968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1057…9ea5backed Seahawks51c250,050$127,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,024.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Seahawks51c249,999$127,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122,499.6947348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Seahawks50c242,713$121,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,401.5127454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf40…87debacked Seahawks50c218,024$109,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,012837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf9…b6d3backed Seahawks51c197,361$100,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,706.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Seahawks50c150,438$75,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,218.9217454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Seahawks49c130,000$63,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,299.986451.6%33 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4736…79e8backed Seahawks50c120,000$60,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,800966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Patriots50c103,263$51,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,173.9554451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Patriots50c100,049$49,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,823.9616051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bd…238ebacked Seahawks51c100,000$51,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Seahawks51c98,039$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,039.227939.2%31 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Seahawks50c93,423$46,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,445.782638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Patriots49c93,420$45,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,877.819152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Patriots33c92,186$30,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,021.722638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Patriots49c80,000$39,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,399.9831240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Patriots50c67,500$33,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,557.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Seahawks68c64,261$43,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,563.5816955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0dc6…9889backed Patriots50c62,669$31,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,334.29922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Seahawks77c52,701$40,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,101.4568446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Patriots50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Patriots49c50,000$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,50022450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Patriots50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Seahawks50c50,000$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,00014450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Seahawks51c48,524$24,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,776.531428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-43.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Seahawks56c46,957$26,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,787.0747738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Seahawks51c42,917$21,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,101.1150242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Seahawks51c41,331$21,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,098.963271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc443…f19fbacked Patriots49c40,403$19,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,997.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Patriots9c36,310$3,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,267.911637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Seahawks50c35,000$17,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,4501442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Seahawks51c34,804$17,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,053.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Seahawks50c33,658$16,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,816.014148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Seahawks78c33,342$26,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,276.574555.6%25 W · 20 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Seahawks51c32,098$16,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,728.041154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ba…0a52backed Patriots50c32,000$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,0001540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d6…3eeebacked Seahawks51c31,341$15,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,357.181127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Seahawks50c30,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,000.07319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Patriots49c29,093$14,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,255.6639447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x486f…b325backed Seahawks51c28,751$14,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,212.551747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Patriots50c28,528$14,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,383.935141.2%21 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Seahawks51c26,669$13,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,134.324634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Patriots48c25,828$12,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,497.3324056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Seahawks50c22,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,000757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Seahawks50c21,909$10,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,954.521233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd2…31f4backed Seahawks51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8002100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3884…94c5backed Patriots50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d8…e9a1backed Seahawks50c20,000$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x801e…ad90backed Seahawks50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0003050%15 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,799.9983147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Seahawks51c19,810$10,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,706.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3d…3c1bbacked Patriots0c19,640$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec5…bdb9backed Seahawks51c19,306$9,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,459.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Seahawks52c18,784$9,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,016.491250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked Patriots50c18,346$9,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,173.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Seahawks50c16,593$8,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,314.121546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Seahawks50c15,825$7,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,914.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41df…95efbacked Patriots50c15,641$7,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,820.4620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Seahawks50c15,536$7,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,804.886764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xaf8b…0cdebacked Patriots51c15,506$7,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,903.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Seahawks50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50016226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Seahawks50c14,000$7,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9605536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Seahawks50c13,740$6,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,85017251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…3048backed Seahawks50c12,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,000520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Patriots51c12,000$6,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,119.993253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Patriots50c11,924$5,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9624456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Seahawks51c11,804$6,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,783.921163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50dc…ed37backed Seahawks51c11,765$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,764.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Seahawks51c11,618$5,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,692.6518140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked Seahawks50c10,670$5,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3351833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Seahawks49c10,397$5,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,303.173148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc857…9e70backed Seahawks51c10,196$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,996.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Seahawks67c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,300.011866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Seahawks50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0007464.9%48 W · 26 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Patriots50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Seahawks50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0001060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Seahawks50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Seahawks50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8b…72ebbacked Patriots49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,899.99825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Patriots49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,899.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f1…8e70backed Seahawks51c9,869$5,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,859.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Seahawks51c9,808$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,805.84650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6364…cb38backed Seahawks51c9,804$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,803.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Seahawks49c9,673$4,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,933.471,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7e7…84dfbacked Seahawks50c9,295$4,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,626.053100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+80.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Patriots49c9,000$4,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4101361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Patriots50c8,339$4,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,169.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e5…a929backed Seahawks51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9201136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe311…2492backed Patriots50c7,996$3,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,997.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9611…8c12backed Seahawks51c7,978$4,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,909.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.