TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Patriots Team Total: O/U 20.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,744 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b46…684dbacked Over10c6,928$697 inLost-$696.713655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+52.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under49c654.82$321 inWon+$333.961926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Over51c400$204 inLost-$20414151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…9f3fbacked Under57c311.78$177 inWon+$134.368056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef50…fddcbacked Under57c175.44$100 inWon+$75.44450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7732…8d82backed Over51c137.12$70 inLost-$701662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+29.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over11c131.4$14 inLost-$14.4536826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over43c119.99$52 inLost-$51.5955345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e5…dad8backed Over51c119$60 inLost-$60.3940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6a…8777backed Over50c99.16$50 inLost-$49.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e50…2187backed Under56c85.21$47 inWon+$37.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Over43c59.68$26 inLost-$25.663658.3%21 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over51c50$26 inLost-$25.518245.6%83 W · 99 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0881…0fd1backed Over51c39.22$20 inLost-$202955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…cd04backed Over51c39.22$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Over47c38.41$18 inLost-$18850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over44c34.91$16 inLost-$15.515679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over44c30$13 inLost-$13.234247.4%162 W · 180 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under50c30$15 inWon+$154639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d3…7604backed Over51c29.18$15 inLost-$14.7830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Over52c28.84$15 inLost-$151030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Over45c25.67$11 inLost-$11.443732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00b9…4ca6backed Over43c23.73$10 inLost-$10.22931%9 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ab…6f99backed Over50c20$10 inLost-$1070%0 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.