TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Patriots Team Total: O/U 21.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,812 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x69e7…d3b0backed Under62c1,854$1,150 inWon+$704.633336.4%12 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over38c1,239$473 inLost-$472.6513756.2%77 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Over42c556.86$234 inLost-$233.881346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e8…b97ebacked Over42c200$84 inLost-$8440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc99…a6f9backed Under61c163.93$100 inWon+$63.93966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0804…049dbacked Over44c136.36$60 inLost-$6010852.8%57 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Under61c110.46$67 inWon+$43.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Over39c65.59$25 inLost-$25.323732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1188…bb30backed Over43c56.2$24 inLost-$23.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9386…cfe5backed Under61c53.47$33 inWon+$20.856149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over38c51.43$20 inLost-$19.5413844.9%62 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b9…4ca6backed Over39c50$20 inLost-$19.52931%9 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Over41c50$21 inLost-$20.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…ccfabacked Under61c50$31 inWon+$19.511454.4%62 W · 52 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb1f…df67backed Under61c32.79$20 inWon+$12.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f8e…2077backed Under60c30$18 inWon+$125100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.