TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 29.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,674

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,079 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Under50c4,080$2,040 inLost-$2,0401145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Under48c3,935$1,874 inLost-$1,873.6517647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over50c3,851$1,923 inWon+$1,928.4412055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Over52c3,602$1,872 inWon+$1,730.653366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Over56c500$280 inWon+$220955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Under75c364.7$273 inLost-$273520%1 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-64.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Over15c299.99$45 inWon+$254.991625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Over57c261.4$149 inWon+$112.42572%18 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Under44c235.1$103 inLost-$103.452334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under44c176.18$77 inLost-$77.3973651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ab…dd76backed Over56c168.23$95 inWon+$73.23742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked Under51c70$36 inLost-$35.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Over51c55.27$28 inWon+$27.081758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ed6…1b74backed Over56c49.64$28 inWon+$21.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under48c41.67$20 inLost-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Under49c39.86$20 inLost-$19.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Under50c22$11 inLost-$1112141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c9…2bd8backed Over50c20$10 inWon+$9.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2438…edfbbacked Under65c18.46$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under64c16.89$11 inLost-$10.8110858.3%63 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.