TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: First Touchdown

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
No Touchdownof Jaxon Smith-Njigba, No Touchdown
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,279

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,157 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba15c2,051$308 inLost-$307.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe1a…8bedbacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba15c2,000$300 inLost-$3001747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e63…1cedbacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c1,004$141 inLost-$140.571637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ebe…9e6dbacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba15c666.67$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c500$70 inLost-$7080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe073…871ebacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c357.14$50 inLost-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41fe…4087backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c357.14$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34f9…ebf6backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c357.14$50 inLost-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-34.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2835…2b42backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c357.14$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba16c300$48 inLost-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e4…1a80backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c286.39$40 inLost-$401435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe36b…095dbacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c250$35 inLost-$352040%8 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c200$28 inLost-$28944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d2…4facbacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba15c166.67$25 inLost-$25825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+75%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0713…49edbacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba15c166.67$25 inLost-$251163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c142.86$20 inLost-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7be6…436ebacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c142.86$20 inLost-$202638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0138…8451backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c140$20 inLost-$206521.5%14 W · 51 L-9.5wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-57.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x02e7…2519backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba15c130$20 inLost-$19.550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0203…270dbacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba44c121.6$53 inLost-$533438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c119.06$17 inLost-$174944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d75…d730backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba17c114.29$20 inLost-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa662…5b38backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c110$15 inLost-$15.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c100$14 inLost-$146251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No Touchdown80c100$80 inWon+$203852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbdc…5d81backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba20c100$20 inLost-$202548%12 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a70…3fc8backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba21c100$21 inLost-$211526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6469…17cdbacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba18c100$18 inLost-$18250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba18c98$18 inLost-$17.645679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No Touchdown56c96.23$54 inWon+$42.343625%9 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-54.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e00…9e93backed Jaxon Smith-Njigba14c88.57$12 inLost-$12.42055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe667…4aeebacked Jaxon Smith-Njigba19c74.53$14 inLost-$14.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.