TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,693
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,693 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Under53c9,778$5,182 inWon+$4,595.7724957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Over47c8,453$3,973 inLost-$3,9731145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bab…53e6backed Under58c1,727$1,000 inWon+$7271145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over44c1,592$700 inLost-$700.4413756.2%77 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over47c1,055$496 inLost-$495.852365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over49c999.97$490 inLost-$489.9818745.5%85 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b1a…7ddebacked Under55c634.55$349 inWon+$285.55540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Over45c634.55$286 inLost-$285.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Under51c400$204 inWon+$19619436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Under51c363$185 inWon+$177.5721151.2%108 W · 103 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Over47c268.09$126 inLost-$1263852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Under51c180.22$92 inWon+$88.319136.3%33 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd533…7b07backed Over20c137$27 inLost-$27.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d7…42c1backed Over45c136.44$61 inLost-$61.41040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over50c76.17$38 inLost-$38.066251.6%32 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7732…8d82backed Under51c58.82$30 inWon+$28.821662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+29.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under51c50.13$25 inWon+$24.6420661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x707b…416abacked Under54c50$27 inWon+$231060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over46c43.48$20 inLost-$2019439.2%76 W · 118 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over44c42.91$19 inLost-$19.0875852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under50c36$18 inWon+$1821254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under51c20$10 inWon+$9.83655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+52.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x602d…bf01backed Under55c18.2$10 inWon+$8.193852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.