TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Patriots Team Total: O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,551
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,551 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5da4…e203backed Under40c21,590$8,587 inWon+$13,002.923548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over60c19,975$11,985 inLost-$11,98516955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over19c8,032$1,496 inLost-$1,495.753655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+52.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Under78c2,248$1,758 inWon+$489.5519651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Over63c1,500$944 inLost-$944.415276.9%40 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+21.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Over19c400$76 inLost-$768213.4%11 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Over19c227.31$43 inLost-$42.583625%9 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-54.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Under79c87.9$70 inWon+$18.33548.6%17 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over63c71.8$45 inLost-$45.1218245.6%83 W · 99 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Under33c57.75$19 inWon+$38.745679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35aa…ba97backed Over72c27.78$20 inLost-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe630…1faebacked Over62c27.35$17 inLost-$17742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b0…fd60backed Over60c22.56$14 inLost-$13.543450%17 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c74…e9b7backed Over63c20$13 inLost-$12.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over64c19.97$13 inLost-$12.782532%8 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-42.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.