NFL · resolved market
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Receiving Yards O/U 90.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ced708413f1f1885d6f2aa08e4b0f3be166ae39702d1d58ed9fd63ab6873575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 47c | 10,580$4,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,613 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…d3febacked Over | 53c | 10,331$5,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,475.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 36c | 3,127$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.28 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Under | 37c | 2,608$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.81 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 64c | 2,397$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.7 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Over | 65c | 1,809$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.65 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Under | 57c | 874.22$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.22 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 596.92$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.34 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Over | 54c | 464$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Over | 41c | 452.33$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.62 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 47c | 401.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.95 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0870…9c01backed Over | 54c | 361.13$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Under | 50c | 317.59$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.91 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Under | 46c | 305$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Over | 55c | 254.77$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Over | 51c | 123.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…edadbacked Over | 63c | 120$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0047…1655backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…f74cbacked Over | 53c | 75.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a72…03dabacked Over | 53c | 69.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 38c | 69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Over | 43c | 65.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35e…0440backed Under | 63c | 63.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…e9b7backed Over | 48c | 51.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…e0bcbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…bde4backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Over | 36c | 45.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 53c | 43.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…bdddbacked Over | 50c | 40.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb84…335ebacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f09…1516backed Over | 54c | 37.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…1db1backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed Over | 46c | 37.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…8742backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…e667backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Over | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…3e18backed Under | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 49c | 30.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 64c | 22.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…7916backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Receiving Yards O/U 90.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks won
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Seahawks won
- AJ Barner: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- AJ Barner: First TouchdownAJ Barner won
- AJ Barner: Rushing Yards O/U 0.5Under won
- Cooper Kupp: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Cooper Kupp: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Cooper Kupp: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5Over won
- Drake Maye: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5Over won
- Hunter Henry: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Hunter Henry: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Hunter Henry: Receiving Yards O/U 37.5Under won
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Kayshon Boutte: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Kayshon Boutte: Receiving Yards O/U 0.5Over won
- Kenneth Walker III: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Kenneth Walker III: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Kenneth Walker III: Receiving Yards O/U 101.5Under won
- Kenneth Walker III: Rushing Yards O/U 80.5Over won
- Mack Hollins: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Mack Hollins: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Mack Hollins: Receiving Yards O/U 28.5Over won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 10.5Over won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 15.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 16.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 17.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 20.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 21.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 23.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 29.5Under won
- Rashid Shaheed: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Rashid Shaheed: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Rashid Shaheed: Receiving Yards O/U 22.5Over won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Receiving Yards O/U 20.5Over won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Rushing Yards O/U 56.5Under won
- Sam Darnold: Rushing Yards O/U 239.5Under won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 17.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 22.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 24.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 25.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 26.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. PatriotsSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 22.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 24.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 27.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 29.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 30.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 31.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 32.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 35.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.