TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Rockets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Rockets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,735,038
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,915,310

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,735,038 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,901 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Rockets22c561,968$125,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125,646.9666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Rockets62c533,812$328,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328,497.998148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers41c493,638$200,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293,413.7585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Lakers39c365,910$141,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224,3649745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Rockets57c247,725$141,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,678.5511333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Rockets61c200,000$122,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,00019754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Rockets22c153,132$33,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,180.6137627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Rockets60c125,000$75,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,999.9760351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Lakers72c111,324$80,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,054.3310448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85f0…3f67backed Lakers38c100,000$38,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,0004546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Rockets50c95,872$48,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,077.8134456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Lakers38c82,331$31,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,721.841,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Rockets60c81,267$48,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,760.1472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers39c72,831$28,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,427.171,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Lakers44c64,633$28,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,492.2564948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Rockets6c61,399$3,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,665.619937.2%74 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de4…b032backed Rockets62c60,675$37,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,618.392458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rockets16c60,012$9,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,503.71,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Lakers39c60,005$23,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,90331644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Rockets29c57,458$16,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,486.781,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Rockets34c52,736$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,00042348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers40c51,693$20,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,048.724,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Rockets62c50,000$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,999.938763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lakers75c49,922$37,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,340.221,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Lakers38c44,737$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,736.8425248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533c…2658backed Rockets30c40,413$12,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,285.22944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Lakers40c40,061$16,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,036.6821549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Rockets18c35,492$6,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,504.691241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+62.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Rockets63c33,864$21,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,2548035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Rockets3c33,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Rockets3c32,811$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.563179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Lakers80c32,292$25,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,574.4410146.5%47 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+217.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Rockets1c30,892$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.255213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Lakers38c30,698$11,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,153.2439842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Rockets60c30,388$18,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,232.661030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lakers39c29,927$11,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,105.711,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Rockets64c28,557$18,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,276.2229245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Rockets4c28,079$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.3946426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Lakers73c27,348$19,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,480.2513642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc4…1f41backed Lakers38c26,316$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,315.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Lakers48c26,190$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,690.356240.3%25 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Lakers38c26,119$9,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,193.5428643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Rockets11c25,417$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.3636023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rockets30c24,990$7,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,420.981,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Rockets61c22,222$13,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,555.425848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Rockets23c21,267$4,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,874.538434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x189c…fea3backed Rockets60c20,770$12,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,461.972343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Lakers39c20,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,20015140.4%61 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Rockets48c18,414$8,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,820.447038.6%27 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Rockets61c18,058$11,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,015.2690650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Rockets63c18,035$11,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,362.0510645.3%48 W · 58 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c4d…ee6abacked Lakers76c17,372$13,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,169.853366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Rockets61c17,072$10,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,413.8732351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Rockets23c16,600$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,779.9913534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rockets60c15,593$9,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,3561,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Lakers39c15,300$5,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,3337829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Lakers75c15,000$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,75017962%111 W · 68 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Lakers39c15,000$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,15011864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Rockets62c15,000$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,30017553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Lakers44c14,971$6,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,346.0369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Rockets2c14,930$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.4512529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Rockets61c14,915$9,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,098.463746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Lakers38c14,800$5,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,1768543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Rockets63c14,250$8,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,977.4416039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Lakers60c13,395$8,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,353.9793148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Lakers75c13,284$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,284.083256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rockets27c13,031$3,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,513.852,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Lakers39c13,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,90043352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed Lakers38c12,880$4,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,985.63857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fc8…6ca6backed Lakers38c12,675$4,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,858.51776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3dd1…9a1fbacked Lakers39c12,564$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,664.12352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ef2…79f9backed Lakers40c12,500$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5001931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Rockets29c12,449$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,610.0910747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Rockets44c12,115$5,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,285.1235650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7998…0db9backed Rockets0c11,680$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9130%0 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Lakers39c11,500$4,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,014.9986641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Lakers38c11,209$4,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,947.2117147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Lakers40c10,690$4,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4145347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Rockets60c10,435$6,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,254.841,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Rockets33c10,291$3,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,436.889444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78c5…fb0fbacked Rockets49c10,283$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Lakers39c10,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,15013642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Lakers39c10,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,10035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Rockets61c10,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,10066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Lakers38c10,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,199.9927251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Lakers64c9,560$6,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,415.9316959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Lakers36c9,500$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,06020537.1%76 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Rockets0c9,254$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.555502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Rockets2c8,750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Rockets14c8,448$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.0211034.5%38 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Rockets17c8,394$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.681,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Lakers39c8,380$3,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,123.7143438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Rockets61c8,000$4,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,88017055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f36…2819backed Lakers40c7,880$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,729.775242.3%22 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Rockets11c7,857$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.582442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Lakers39c7,728$3,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,721.7565939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Lakers72c7,500$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1005747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets36c7,376$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,622.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Rockets29c7,200$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.9910248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Lakers55c7,183$3,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,221.2820946.9%98 W · 111 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.