NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd778c91dc126dfaf5910227be0c23989ba705d5cf3154d74ee31ca0f6a0ea189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Rockets, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cf7…0caabacked Rockets | 51c | 566.67$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lakers | 49c | 527.05$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.79 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Rockets | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Lakers | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Lakers | 49c | 410.16$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.18 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Rockets | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b7…5ee3backed Rockets | 47c | 208.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 113 | 33.6%38 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Rockets | 49c | 154.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Lakers | 53c | 104.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Lakers | 51c | 104.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Lakers | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Rockets | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Lakers | 51c | 69.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Rockets | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lakers | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Lakers | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Lakers | 51c | 36.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…bbf6backed Rockets | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)this page
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. RocketsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 104.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 203.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 204.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.