NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 204.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x357aac9e03661108ad908b99866720d8b6b4f6313827ceee7651b0d8669616d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59e5…7a2bbacked Over | 48c | 38,900$18,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,866.49 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Over | 49c | 20,348$9,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,970.3 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 52c | 19,505$10,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,371.78 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 75c | 8,521$6,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150.04 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 21c | 8,164$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.18 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 51c | 7,277$3,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,565.71 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 51c | 7,114$3,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,486.01 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 51c | 7,034$3,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,447.21 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 51c | 6,471$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,170.59 | 219 | 43.4%95 W · 124 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfb…0b3dbacked Under | 51c | 5,882$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.35 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Under | 50c | 4,339$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.7 | 292 | 45.5%133 W · 159 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Under | 51c | 3,557$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c85…94a4backed Over | 50c | 3,332$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Under | 51c | 2,033$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 1,378$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.02 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…764bbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 440 | 52.5%231 W · 209 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 52c | 980.76$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.76 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 756.7$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.62 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Over | 50c | 603$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 598$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Over | 50c | 594$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 51c | 454$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.46 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over | 50c | 410$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Over | 50c | 398$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 50c | 373.48$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.74 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 50c | 363.48$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.74 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 50c | 224.4$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 51c | 203.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 32.6%125 W · 259 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 191$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Under | 78c | 148.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 50c | 129.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…789abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +7.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 235 | 39.1%92 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…a1ecbacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…f27abacked Over | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 49c | 60.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Over | 55c | 51.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…dcb7backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 279 | 45.9%128 W · 151 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 52c | 48.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 43.4%96 W · 125 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Over | 45c | 30.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Over | 51c | 26.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 48c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb750…67efbacked Over | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 519 | 46.8%243 W · 276 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…8f73backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 204.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Lakers won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. RocketsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 104.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 203.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.