NBA · resolved market
Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4676ea5bbeb48eef835bfc1677b02cab3a8fe87b92f50e66e2a46ff1504b1ff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 55c | 1,072$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.3 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 42c | 760.92$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.94 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked No | 43c | 216.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.74 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Yes | 59c | 164$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 44c | 80.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 59c | 58.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked No | 44c | 45.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes | 59c | 34.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 56c | 27.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Yes | 59c | 26.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…6593backed Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Lakers won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. RocketsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 104.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 203.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 204.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.