NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a3cf01d7839c2c5f829c8dc8b6659cb046e4095bf7c923fc744ff9cb1f56b79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Under | 50c | 1,755$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 48c | 1,331$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.81 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 46c | 1,154$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.54 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…08f9backed Under | 23c | 702.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.91 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…ccbdbacked Under | 55c | 654.73$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Over | 50c | 555$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 51c | 462$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.08 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 458.77$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 57c | 456.39$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.62 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 51c | 454.27$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.85 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Over | 48c | 444$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 56c | 443.36$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 58c | 387.85$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.05 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba5…cb7dbacked Over | 71c | 358.58$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…896cbacked Under | 59c | 341.8$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 72c | 340$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 28c | 339$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 67c | 330$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 36c | 313.62$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.93 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Over | 39c | 299.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 63c | 291.73$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.47 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 255.91$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Over | 50c | 233.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 128 | 59.4%76 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 50c | 232.2$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 218.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 67c | 210.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 30c | 203.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.43 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 56c | 200.21$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 40c | 182.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Under | 78c | 156$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…c58fbacked Under | 64c | 155.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 63c | 150.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 22c | 137.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 57c | 123$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 58c | 120.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 59c | 119.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…34b7backed Over | 73c | 118.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 23c | 102.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Over | 77c | 102.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 38c | 101.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…e71ebacked Under | 33c | 93.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3783…171dbacked Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 77c | 75.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Under | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 45c | 57.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed Over | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 31c | 47.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…8843backed Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 54c | 37.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 64c | 29.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 58c | 29.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 51c | 29.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Under | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked Over | 78c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Under | 66c | 16.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 4.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. UtahGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.