TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Patriots vs. Broncos

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Patriotsof Patriots, Broncos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,245,929
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,899,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,245,929 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,879 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Patriots78c1,014,203$789,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225,007.1416955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Broncos34c760,001$255,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255,830.343348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Broncos33c611,954$203,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,646.357554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa41…a7a1backed Patriots66c605,540$399,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206,206.56837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Broncos38c532,153$204,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,210.9712055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Patriots59c312,082$182,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129,089.755154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Patriots65c304,954$197,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,403.642450%12 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Broncos33c296,502$99,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,146.619553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Broncos38c252,950$96,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,618.953737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Patriots66c200,252$132,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,085.2353253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Broncos35c200,000$70,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,0001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Patriots72c193,431$138,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,099.485453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Broncos33c186,780$60,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,955.975152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Broncos43c183,412$78,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,160.9573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Patriots66c174,813$115,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,938.341968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Patriots62c168,701$104,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,247.366248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Patriots66c151,498$99,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,509.182161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Patriots66c144,999$95,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,714.0930743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Broncos34c142,106$48,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,262.3519152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Patriots72c129,574$93,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,774.83070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Patriots67c124,994$83,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,379.5447348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Patriots68c118,818$80,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,456.222030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Broncos30c117,566$35,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,593.9714349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Broncos35c114,986$40,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,2455648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Patriots66c104,312$68,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,847.8627454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Patriots65c103,703$67,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,296.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Broncos34c103,558$35,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,209.5811544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Broncos33c100,000$33,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,999.975431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Patriots65c100,000$65,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,999.891145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Patriots65c96,458$62,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,760.2824957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c28…9e49backed Patriots43c93,404$40,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,404.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Broncos59c77,857$45,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,935.684955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Patriots53c77,173$40,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,544.047736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Broncos36c74,805$26,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,651.553767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Broncos33c74,096$24,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,580.916836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Patriots59c73,226$42,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,374.7223244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Patriots61c72,783$44,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,418.5730043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Patriots71c69,853$49,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,991.944057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Broncos54c61,409$33,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,081.92850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Patriots67c60,041$40,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,040.713100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Broncos38c59,701$22,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,685.7320026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Patriots65c55,555$36,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,444.254440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Patriots49c55,461$27,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,049.0947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Broncos34c53,573$17,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,989.9654451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Patriots62c52,800$32,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,0642437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Patriots59c50,728$29,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,904.514555.6%25 W · 20 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d76…eb01backed Broncos32c50,385$16,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Patriots60c50,240$30,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,178.814852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Patriots70c50,000$35,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,00023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Patriots65c50,000$32,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,5001662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Patriots69c46,473$31,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,474.737153.5%38 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce4…bb71backed Patriots66c45,979$30,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,632.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b7…bfe9backed Patriots67c44,361$29,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,639.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Broncos37c43,593$16,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,008.4275852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Patriots58c40,468$23,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,094.999853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Broncos35c40,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Broncos59c39,787$23,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,474.221254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Patriots78c38,247$29,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,437.121450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Broncos34c36,752$12,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,564.124148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ec…5d8ebacked Patriots68c36,678$24,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,737.41973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Patriots69c36,485$25,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,310.383271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Patriots65c34,897$22,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,052.091154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Broncos52c34,483$17,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,809.2120755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Patriots65c33,500$21,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,724.982657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Broncos31c33,333$10,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,333.2217454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Patriots66c32,222$21,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,045.9412144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Broncos31c32,056$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Patriots58c30,150$17,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,765.9712944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Broncos32c30,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Broncos38c30,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,399.962450%12 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Broncos35c28,571$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f10…76b3backed Patriots60c28,507$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,507.461729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-52.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Patriots68c28,177$19,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,980.353351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771c…18f2backed Broncos0c28,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Broncos35c27,131$9,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,495.992828.6%8 W · 20 L-7.0wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-48%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Broncos1c27,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010555.2%58 W · 47 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Patriots65c26,111$17,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,070.979447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Patriots69c26,053$17,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,154.226459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos39c25,131$9,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,816.2583147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Patriots58c25,077$14,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,532.341827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed Broncos34c25,000$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,499.9730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Patriots66c24,524$16,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,3503040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Broncos39c24,078$9,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,483.191442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Patriots57c23,557$13,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,120.367255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73ee…f5c6backed Patriots67c23,510$15,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,758.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Patriots71c23,500$16,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,89522142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d75…c09fbacked Broncos35c22,989$8,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,04610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Patriots66c22,434$14,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,705.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe17b…6f98backed Patriots68c22,250$15,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,120250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Patriots79c22,222$17,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,768.3619645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Patriots67c22,216$14,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,220.084634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b63…1147backed Patriots68c22,004$14,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,084.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Patriots70c20,381$14,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,145.455356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Broncos30c20,327$6,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,098.156219.4%12 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7172…4cf3backed Patriots67c20,022$13,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,579.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Patriots65c20,000$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,00024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…4f91backed Broncos1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Patriots68c20,000$13,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,299.995472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Broncos35c20,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.961330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5248…aabbbacked Patriots69c19,309$13,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,956.661181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+55.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.