NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e29ae9220207efbb9a6b10fe79d09dc21e0e6b15d7095289a8ca046a4977aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Patriots, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Patriots | 50c | 10,040$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Broncos | 50c | 7,012$3,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,486 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Broncos | 50c | 4,253$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,136.48 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Broncos | 50c | 3,990$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.03 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Broncos | 54c | 3,990$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.09 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…4cf3backed Patriots | 50c | 2,940$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Patriots | 46c | 2,017$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.84 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Patriots | 50c | 1,018$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Patriots | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked Patriots | 48c | 750$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Patriots | 45c | 577.77$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Patriots | 46c | 528$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.88 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Patriots | 54c | 459.13$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.93 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Patriots | 47c | 350.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.62 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Patriots | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Broncos | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…be5fbacked Broncos | 53c | 244.66$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…919cbacked Patriots | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Broncos | 46c | 206.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…2d72backed Patriots | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…98aabacked Broncos | 76c | 131.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Patriots | 51c | 116.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Broncos | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b9…4ca6backed Broncos | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Patriots | 53c | 75.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Broncos | 52c | 57.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Patriots | 62c | 38.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Broncos | 66c | 38.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Patriots | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Broncos | 48c | 29.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Patriots | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Patriots | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Patriots | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…f901backed Patriots | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e5…a260backed Patriots | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Broncos won
- Courtland Sutton: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Drake Maye: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Drake Maye: Rushing Yards O/U 30.5Over won
- Hunter Henry: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Jarrett Stidham: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Jarrett Stidham: Rushing Yards O/U 13.5Over won
- Marvin Mims Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 2.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 23.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 33.5Under won
- Patriots vs. BroncosPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 23.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 30.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 31.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 33.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 34.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 35.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 40.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5Under won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Receiving Yards O/U 18.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-1.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Patriots (-5.5)Broncos won
- Stefon Diggs: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- TreVeyon Henderson: Anytime TouchdownNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.