NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 20.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x204b14f24297c06aaa199dc1d8844bd1becc80bc07f6fca3c5b60e7578c9c201
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 52c | 360$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…0267backed Over | 55c | 345.06$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 45c | 267.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.34 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 50c | 267$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…98aabacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Over | 52c | 187$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 136.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…de22backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +7.8wins | +0.36per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Under | 48c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Over | 53c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Under | 48c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Over | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Under | 48c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 42.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Over | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Under | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed Under | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Under | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Under | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.40per pick | 51cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Under | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Under | 48c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 20.5this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Broncos won
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Broncos won
- Courtland Sutton: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Drake Maye: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Drake Maye: Rushing Yards O/U 30.5Over won
- Hunter Henry: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Jarrett Stidham: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Jarrett Stidham: Rushing Yards O/U 13.5Over won
- Marvin Mims Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 2.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 23.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 33.5Under won
- Patriots vs. BroncosPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 23.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 30.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 31.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 33.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 34.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 35.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 40.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5Under won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Receiving Yards O/U 18.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-1.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Patriots (-5.5)Broncos won
- Stefon Diggs: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- TreVeyon Henderson: Anytime TouchdownNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.