TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Patriots (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Broncosof Patriots, Broncos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$836,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$890,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $836,484 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 335 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x98f7…b3e4backed Patriots44c218,342$96,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,721.22030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Broncos54c117,024$63,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,798.0412055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33d0…f7ebbacked Patriots44c90,500$39,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,778.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Broncos57c64,355$36,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,672.5156852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Broncos57c62,913$35,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,326.8775852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Patriots43c62,300$26,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,611666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Patriots44c50,000$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,0007440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Broncos56c50,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,999.975154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Broncos54c44,000$23,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,08024957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Broncos57c40,000$22,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,20014349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Broncos58c36,968$21,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,526.4416955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Patriots43c35,586$15,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,302.032965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Patriots43c34,544$14,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,837.371154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Broncos58c29,180$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,180.091747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Patriots47c24,283$11,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,412.9423937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Broncos51c18,867$9,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,202.8322450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Broncos55c18,413$10,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,355.683256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Patriots49c16,767$8,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,215.831450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Patriots46c16,637$7,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,653.177153.5%38 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Patriots48c15,400$7,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3213271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Broncos57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,45020755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Broncos57c14,917$8,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,364.23619.4%7 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-66.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Broncos56c12,712$7,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,593.471866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Patriots42c11,326$4,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,756.8683147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Broncos52c10,620$5,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,097.76650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Broncos56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40013560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Broncos58c8,621$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.69650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Patriots45c8,000$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,579.933253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Patriots41c7,520$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.124440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Patriots43c7,186$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0901145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Broncos54c6,447$3,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.7220661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Broncos57c5,263$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.164744.7%21 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Broncos58c5,173$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.45988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.36per pick53cpaid+69.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Patriots45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.9814438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Patriots43c4,698$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.2977052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Broncos57c4,584$2,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,978.815141.2%21 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Patriots43c4,446$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.651,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Patriots46c4,208$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.452626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-48%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Broncos57c3,944$2,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.8854451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Patriots44c3,822$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680.392740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Broncos57c3,368$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Broncos65c3,334$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.818454.8%46 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9723…77d8backed Broncos54c3,300$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Broncos58c3,238$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.112572%18 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Broncos56c3,161$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.224148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Broncos57c3,000$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29510353.4%55 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Broncos57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2901154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Broncos56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32011750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Broncos57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29010156.4%57 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Broncos54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3805754.4%31 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe13e…c564backed Patriots43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.992339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Patriots42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.993847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Broncos57c2,869$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.1139447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Patriots45c2,775$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Broncos57c2,763$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.0913756.2%77 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Patriots44c2,734$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.1773651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e17…f41ebacked Patriots48c2,420$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1681338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Patriots46c2,118$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4a…68a2backed Patriots44c2,010$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2513…91fbbacked Patriots48c1,896$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.971145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa63c…27a4backed Patriots45c1,850$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.61735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Broncos57c1,673$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.591,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Patriots47c1,581$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.015550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Broncos57c1,526$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.3813959%82 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Broncos55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67526648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83bf…0ef2backed Patriots44c1,477$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-43.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x670d…0825backed Patriots44c1,374$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.357037.1%26 W · 44 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Broncos53c1,318$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.6621151.2%108 W · 103 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Broncos58c1,216$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.1629059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Patriots28c1,159$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.863125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Broncos54c1,145$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Broncos48c1,131$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5884544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Broncos57c1,111$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.622638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Broncos57c1,053$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.637361.6%45 W · 28 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1fca…9d33backed Patriots44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Patriots42c999.95$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.981735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Broncos51c951.16$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.0716051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9764…c40cbacked Patriots53c937.52$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f7…b17abacked Broncos53c925$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.7511855.9%66 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Broncos47c829.49$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.9219439.2%76 W · 118 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Patriots33c818.84$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.8427644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Broncos54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Broncos53c799.89$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.9517251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Patriots42c703.04$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6627633.3%92 W · 184 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Patriots48c627.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Patriots45c622.43$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2813342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf60d…761abacked Broncos53c622.04$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.921573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Patriots50c618.13$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31013641.9%57 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…3fb0backed Broncos57c614.04$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Broncos58c600$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2526663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+30.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb973…ff16backed Patriots42c583.26$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.973240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Broncos54c566.07$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.292532%8 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-42.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Broncos54c563.64$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.6422349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Broncos56c559.77$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.914060.7%85 W · 55 L+14.3wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Broncos54c545.45$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.493046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadc5…e2afbacked Broncos51c544.52$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.721136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Broncos60c542.69$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.427052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Broncos55c528.27$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.7219651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb61…58ffbacked Patriots49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Patriots49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24527835.3%98 W · 180 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.