TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$675,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$723,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $675,957 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa41…a7a1backed Under49c204,082$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,081.63837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over51c112,721$57,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,462.3512055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Under49c96,759$47,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,346.481662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Over50c50,000$25,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,2001866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Over52c50,000$26,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,00016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Under50c49,953$24,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,976.652680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Under50c35,280$17,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,640250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over51c25,241$12,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,870.8724056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Over50c24,734$12,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,366.994440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Over51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,20031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Under47c20,000$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,599.9917647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Over52c19,852$10,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,319.5316860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Under48c12,202$5,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,344.91968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over51c12,081$6,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,124.431,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Over50c12,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00011750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over52c11,398$5,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,891.8154451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13ff…16a3backed Over51c11,000$5,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6101040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Under49c9,219$4,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,669.675141.2%21 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over51c8,302$4,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,234.0219152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over53c8,000$4,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,24051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over51c7,972$4,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,066.74148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under48c7,816$3,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,098.992740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae82…ebf1backed Under50c7,787$3,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,893.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb93d…f0c4backed Over51c7,633$3,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,89320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Over52c6,767$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.831450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Under48c6,579$3,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,421.034057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Under48c6,539$3,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,397.353342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9023…15cbbacked Over52c6,386$3,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,320.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a15…5e14backed Under48c6,353$3,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,303.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over52c6,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1005754.4%31 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8758…01e0backed Over51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,060540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over51c5,499$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820.332638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over52c4,600$2,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,391.955149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Under48c4,157$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.533557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Over51c4,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.931442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Over52c3,576$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.135954.2%32 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Over58c3,413$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.7717548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bab…53e6backed Under53c3,221$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.41145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5672…5019backed Over51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5305141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over51c3,000$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5155362.3%33 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over52c2,876$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.529447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Over52c2,864$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.12850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over50c2,842$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.8456852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b08…395bbacked Under48c2,548$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ba…e5efbacked Over52c2,540$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.6120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over14c2,159$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.78837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x190d…d1ffbacked Under48c2,145$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bf8…6f59backed Over52c2,139$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Over2c2,066$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.212450%12 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over51c2,054$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.639447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe36b…095dbacked Under51c2,041$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.182040%8 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Over52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011156.8%63 W · 48 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over44c1,868$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.1523850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc4…eec8backed Under48c1,750$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over53c1,742$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.284456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa15f…f3aebacked Over52c1,742$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over50c1,637$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.526649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Over51c1,626$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.011450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over51c1,508$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.921566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Over45c1,502$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.644944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Over51c1,498$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.9239242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over13c1,229$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.513065.4%85 W · 45 L+17.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Under49c1,122$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Over53c1,111$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.833033.3%10 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over6c1,087$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.843357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over52c1,059$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.775852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over51c1,045$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.589855.1%54 W · 44 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over52c1,024$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.4877052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Over29c1,007$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.443125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006844.1%30 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52017251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Over52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Over49c995$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.554544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over9c857.71$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3460049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b45…d196backed Under49c815.24$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3518…c4aebacked Over2c800.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Under50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40031540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Under49c765.75$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.539442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca5…e6c9backed Under52c763.64$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.641855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bab…cf38backed Over51c755.02$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.06425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95c5…e0f1backed Under48c717.53$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf86…7d31backed Under50c717.02$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.51837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+99.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under44c715.54$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.0973651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedeb…7e07backed Over52c707.36$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Under57c706.18$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.183030%9 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-42.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Under49c613$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.6312151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30611946.2%55 W · 64 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3007850%39 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x650a…2fc7backed Under49c600$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da6…59fabacked Under49c575.2$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.353650%18 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Over51c562.6$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.933046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfd6…415abacked Under49c542.04$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.441250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Over52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Over51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25514945.6%68 W · 81 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e44…686abacked Over52c481.83$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.55944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b0…fd60backed Over13c452.79$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.053450%17 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed Under56c441.64$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.746755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.