TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6757…7ece

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
115
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: College Football, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 56 out of 100; worst Tennis at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT3537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Tennis — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Copa Colsanitas: Panna Udvardy vs Katarzyna Kawabacked Katarzyna Kawa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$5,202Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,201.69
Miami Open: Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Cerundolobacked Francisco Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,604Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,669.88
Miami Open: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$211.63
Miami Open: Janice Tjen vs Yulia Putintsevabacked Janice Tjen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,865Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,864.96
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Kayla Daybacked Darja Semenistaja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000.18
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Yue Yuanbacked Yue Yuan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,097Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,097.25
ATX Open: Anastasia Zakharova vs Mary Stoianabacked Zakharova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+85.2%+$109.06
Mexican Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Sho Shimabukurobacked Mannarino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$986Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$985.8
Chile Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tomas Barriosbacked Tabilo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,417Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+64.2%+$910
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Kordabacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,003Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+61.3%+$614.46
Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublevbacked Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,623Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+127.3%+$4,611.6
Australian Open Women's: Petra Marcinko vs Tatjana Mariabacked Maria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$462.53
Australian Open Women's: Olga Danilovic vs Venus Williamsbacked Williams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$126.18
Australian Open Women's: Yulia Putintseva vs Beatriz Haddad Maiabacked Maia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$674Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$674.25
Australian Open Women's: Talia Gibson vs Anna Blinkovabacked Blinkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,749Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$2,748.61
Adelaide International: Mirra Andreeva vs Diana Shnaiderbacked Andreeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,890Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+57.1%+$2,222.38
Adelaide International: Aleksandar Vukic vs Andrea Vavassoribacked Vavassori · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$347.5
Australian Open Men's: Rei Sakamoto vs Colton Smithbacked Smith · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$3,749Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$3,749.35
Adelaide International: Jelena Ostapenko vs Tereza Valentovabacked Ostapenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$3,433Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$3,433.17
Adelaide International: Jacob Fearnley vs Quentin Halysbacked Fearnley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,626Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$1,626.4
Adelaide International: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Rusebacked Kalinskaya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,655Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+58.7%+$971.71
Brisbane International: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyukbacked Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$770Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$769.6
ASB Classic: Ella Seidel vs Sonay Kartalbacked Seidel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,456Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$1,455.7
Brisbane International: Diana Shnaider vs Madison Keysbacked Keys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,899Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+69.5%+$2,014.74
ASB Classic: Sofia Costoulas vs Kaitlin Quevedobacked Quevedo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$2,101.09
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT3056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bearsbacked California Golden Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,739Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$781.14
Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 146.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$607Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$560.63
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-12.5)backed Creighton Bluejays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,185Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$1,185.42
Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-10.5)backed Saint Mary's Gaels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,031Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$1,030.54
Troy Trojans vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: O/U 153.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$550.74
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 184.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,008Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+100%+$1,008.33
Spread: Florida Gators (-8.5)backed Georgia Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$277.5
Portland State Vikings vs. Sacramento State Hornets: O/U 152.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,816Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+96.1%+$2,705.15
Brown Bears vs. Yale Bulldogs: O/U 139.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$4,931Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+92.3%+$4,551.45
Davidson Wildcats vs. Richmond Spiders: O/U 140.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+96.1%+$147.21
Spread: George Washington Revolutionaries (-11.5)backed Fordham Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,906Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+100%+$2,905.5
Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,794Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+78.6%+$2,195.21
Alabama State Hornets vs. Texas Southern Tigersbacked Alabama State Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,575Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,575
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4.5)backed Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$449Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+96.1%+$431.56
Charleston Southern Buccaneers vs. Longwood Lancersbacked Longwood Lancers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,475Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+100%+$1,475.3
Bellarmine Knights vs. Jacksonville Dolphins: O/U 138.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+108.3%+$224.92
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 148.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.59
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Valparaiso Beacons: O/U 142.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$4,965Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$4,964.69
North Alabama Lions vs. Queens (NC) Royals: O/U 159.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+150%+$312.12
Seton Hall Pirates vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 144.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+96.1%+$14.98
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-13.5)backed UCF Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,002Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$3,002.22
Spread: Hofstra Pride (-1.5)backed Towson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$15.9
Spread: Florida Atlantic Owls (-4.5)backed Tulane Green Wave · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+85.2%+$117.3
Spread: Morehead State Eagles (-1.5)backed Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$501.42
Spread: Old Dominion Monarchs (-4.5)backed Coastal Carolina Chanticleers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,742Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+92.3%+$1,608
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT2548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: 76ers (-1.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,049Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,048.85
Spread: Suns (-12.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,071Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+100%+$2,071.17
Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 5.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$566.61
Spread: Hawks (-10.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,056Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$1,144
Rockets vs. Heatbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$3,640
Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 7.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$235
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$488Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+100%+$487.97
Kings vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,658Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$1,530
Spread: 76ers (-8.5)backed Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$312.2
Hawks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$3,840Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+108.3%+$4,160
Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$379.88
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,647Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$3,647.48
Kings vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$2,170.64
Quentin Grimes: Assists O/U 2.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$698Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$697.97
Zach LaVine: Points O/U 16.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$96.48
Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 2.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$101.99
Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$740
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 18.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$1,155
LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+112.8%+$210.19
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,020Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+92.3%+$2,787.88
Timberwolves vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$4,216.32
Cavaliers vs. 76ersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$352Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+100%+$351.79
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,693Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$2,116
Rockets vs. Netsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$70.98
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,201Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100%+$2,201
All 25 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+64%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$289.2
Kings vs. Flames: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$915Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$914.93
Oilers vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$3,780Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$3,220.21
Flames vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+58.8%+$324.06
Blues vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,918Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+51.5%+$988.16
All 5 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+88.7%+$42.48
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+72.4%+$126
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.