Tennis · resolved market
Adelaide International: Jelena Ostapenko vs Tereza Valentova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17a0765373a5a129a49478e8a6a7e24ad54852b6f320818804a4ee94c9b0057d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valentovaof Ostapenko, Valentova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Valentova | 72c | 13,547$9,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,849.93 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Ostapenko | 29c | 12,040$3,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,433.17 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Ostapenko | 9c | 8,627$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Valentova | 76c | 7,015$5,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.15 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…cee8backed Ostapenko | 5c | 5,731$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…1e6cbacked Ostapenko | 19c | 2,679$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…81ecbacked Ostapenko | 12c | 1,784$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valentova | 66c | 1,509$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.86 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…0bd2backed Valentova | 71c | 1,472$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…5ce8backed Ostapenko | 29c | 1,470$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…271dbacked Ostapenko | 2c | 1,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Ostapenko | 25c | 1,223$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Ostapenko | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Ostapenko | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ostapenko | 28c | 981$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.68 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Ostapenko | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Valentova | 67c | 734.07$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.01 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ceb…3656backed Ostapenko | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90e5…e5cebacked Ostapenko | 15c | 669.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Ostapenko | 13c | 638.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 107 | 29%31 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Ostapenko | 13c | 603.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e1…91debacked Ostapenko | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…6efcbacked Ostapenko | 13c | 538.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Ostapenko | 21c | 523.2$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Valentova | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Ostapenko | 17c | 472.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Valentova | 73c | 459.4$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Valentova | 68c | 337.28$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Ostapenko | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Ostapenko | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Ostapenko | 69c | 282.88$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.19 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…d106backed Valentova | 38c | 269.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Ostapenko | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Ostapenko | 46c | 201.07$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Ostapenko | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d35…8518backed Ostapenko | 15c | 192.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Valentova | 40c | 189.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Ostapenko | 26c | 176.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ostapenko | 15c | 162$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3457…0161backed Ostapenko | 10c | 159.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked Valentova | 44c | 153.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…cf0bbacked Ostapenko | 27c | 149.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…675bbacked Ostapenko | 57c | 139.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 137 | 63.5%87 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Ostapenko | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 346 | 37.9%131 W · 215 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Ostapenko | 47c | 108.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Ostapenko | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Ostapenko | 27c | 102.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Ostapenko | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Valentova | 42c | 85.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Valentova | 72c | 78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…70e3backed Ostapenko | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…243dbacked Valentova | 65c | 70.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…d044backed Ostapenko | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Ostapenko | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Valentova | 74c | 67.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ostapenko | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Ostapenko | 53c | 57.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Valentova | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Ostapenko | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…c974backed Ostapenko | 31c | 48.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Ostapenko | 49c | 38.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -59%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Valentova | 43c | 38.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…fc48backed Ostapenko | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…3c8bbacked Ostapenko | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Valentova | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…7fbebacked Ostapenko | 59c | 25.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Valentova | 77c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide International: Jelena Ostapenko vs Tereza Valentovathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs ValentovaValentova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.