TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9fc3…675b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
189
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Serie A, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 54 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennislast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT13763.5%87 W · 50 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 137 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open, Qualification ATP: Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garinbacked Cristian Garin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$102.24
US Open, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Jordan Leebacked Jordan Lee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+68.3%+$179.92
Cincinnati Open: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatekbacked Iga Swiatek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$760Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$759.74
Cincinnati Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Filsbacked Arthur Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$92.78
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashimabacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Cincinnati Open: Sara Bejlek vs Madison Keysbacked Madison Keys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Cincinnati Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Jessica Pegulabacked Amanda Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.89
Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$394.9
Set 2 Winner: Jodar vs Cobollibacked Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.38
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Medvedevbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$71.95
Cincinnati Open: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borgesbacked Nuno Borges · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$46.75
Cincinnati Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Anna Kalinskayabacked Sorana Cirstea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+70%+$70
Cincinnati Open: Xinyu Wang vs Donna Vekicbacked Xinyu Wang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$66.67
Cincinnati Open: Martin Landaluce vs Matteo Arnaldibacked Martin Landaluce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.91
Cincinnati Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$45.95
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullinbacked Andrey Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$592Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$592.18
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landalucebacked Martin Landaluce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$617Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$617.17
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaurbacked Alex de Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.2
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanubacked Emma Raducanu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.92
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrellbacked Kimberly Birrell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondarbacked Anna Blinkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$722Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$284.64
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Hueslerbacked Martin Landaluce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+60.4%+$120.87
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukurobacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$92.99
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Gironbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$77.52
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilicbacked Nuno Borges · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$267.84
Showing 25 of 137 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$230.62
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+88.7%+$18.62
Nigeria vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+52.3%+$10.45
Will Gabon win on 2025-12-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$159.29
Equatorial Guinea vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$233.84
Equatorial Guinea vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$131.34
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$130.33
Will Sudan win on 2025-12-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+35.1%+$12.34
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-12-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$100.22
Will Zambia vs. Comoros end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+55.9%+$57.06
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+28.2%+$24.47
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Mozambique end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+81.8%+$24.55
Will Zimbabwe win on 2025-12-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$120
All 18 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST1172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SS Lazio vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+48%+$22.57
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+69.5%+$16.68
Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+64.7%+$140.49
Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Juventus FC vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+81.8%+$16.36
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+58.7%+$12.29
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+100%+$20
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+40.8%+$8.17
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+44.9%+$22.46
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+81.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+134%+$34.84
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+28.2%+$10.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+42.9%+$8.57
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pacers vs. Magicbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+104.1%+$11.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Stars vs. Ducksbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+100%+$140
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+117.4%+$22.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-01-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+49.3%+$21.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Old Dominion vs. South Floridabacked South Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$71.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.