TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,533,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,617,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,533,828 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,325 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed No32c529,444$167,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361,765.6921853.2%116 W · 102 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Yes68c230,000$157,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157,299.973336.4%12 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-31.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed Yes69c204,954$141,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,418.26966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Yes69c115,942$80,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,0008962.9%56 W · 33 L+0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes68c113,066$76,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,970.1414544.8%65 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No31c109,000$33,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,21020140.8%82 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes69c85,000$58,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,6503941%16 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed No31c83,619$25,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,697.065054%27 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked No32c79,141$24,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,144.313246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No32c62,750$20,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,669.9410455.8%58 W · 46 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked No31c61,389$19,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,358.4415344.4%68 W · 85 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No31c56,958$17,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,301.0524846.8%116 W · 132 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes68c54,362$37,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,135.531,14642.8%490 W · 656 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes70c45,627$31,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,917.021,21241.7%505 W · 707 L-1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes54c43,000$23,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,220728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked No46c39,927$18,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,660.0815049.3%74 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6394…9bb3backed Yes68c38,461$26,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,153.445271.2%37 W · 15 L+9.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+33.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No30c36,815$11,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,592.5324146.9%113 W · 128 L+21.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4813…ae12backed No32c33,333$10,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,666.421020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes31c30,504$9,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,557.934,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No32c30,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,399.9615949.1%78 W · 81 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No46c29,618$13,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,993.8627750.9%141 W · 136 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed Yes67c29,024$19,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,566.5214450.7%73 W · 71 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d5b…a718backed Yes69c28,829$19,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,892.041241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No31c26,840$8,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,581.6518950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No33c26,460$8,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,824.6531944.5%142 W · 177 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed No31c24,625$7,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,109.188747.1%41 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No32c21,405$6,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,562.8610335%36 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No31c20,682$6,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,179.022,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No32c20,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,599.975337.7%20 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No32c18,870$6,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,831.610057%57 W · 43 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Yes68c17,647$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0009636.5%35 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No48c17,383$8,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,098.872,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Yes38c16,199$6,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,155.6612649.2%62 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf975…4354backed Yes69c15,000$10,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,3506746.3%31 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes68c14,084$9,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,577.141241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9eb…ae0ebacked No31c14,058$4,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,700.211764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick40cpaid+52%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Yes68c14,000$9,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,5203053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes68c12,014$8,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,169.3518259.3%108 W · 74 L+14.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d8e…349fbacked Yes68c11,766$8,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000.82055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes48c10,226$4,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,955.716,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes19c9,797$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.653348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed No32c9,148$2,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,220.312133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x625f…9ff6backed Yes69c8,505$5,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,902.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc55e…19c7backed Yes62c8,115$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c5…a4debacked No32c8,000$2,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,409.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd953…29cabacked No33c8,000$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,369.98862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5c1…c755backed Yes41c7,667$3,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,175.03944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc449…2239backed Yes61c7,505$4,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,573.482857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Yes68c7,353$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00016753.3%89 W · 78 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64aa…1dc7backed Yes68c6,893$4,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,687.221163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed No46c6,838$3,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,692.4913829%40 W · 98 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked No31c6,800$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6923348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed No71c6,626$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.5425052%130 W · 120 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed No30c6,600$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,591.5814254.2%77 W · 65 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Yes68c6,465$4,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,396.269246.7%43 W · 49 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+33.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Yes55c6,364$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5003333.3%11 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked No36c6,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8406046.7%28 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f6…d12fbacked Yes69c5,815$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.173240.6%13 W · 19 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick64cpaid-37.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf97e…da44backed Yes15c5,728$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.97837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No36c5,716$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,654.2711162.2%69 W · 42 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes54c5,556$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00012345.5%56 W · 67 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe137…0c01backed Yes54c5,556$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0004438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8511…ed83backed Yes68c5,263$3,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,601.697035.7%25 W · 45 L-10.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed No31c5,081$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,505.892356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a4c…8138backed No40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0003450%17 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes70c5,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5009845.9%45 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa661…af49backed Yes69c4,900$3,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,381944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes69c4,696$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,240.242339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes68c4,680$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,193.251,28348%616 W · 667 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes68c4,628$3,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,157.315257.2%87 W · 65 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c4…6655backed No57c4,445$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9214100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a83…195bbacked Yes68c4,413$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.932445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc832…536bbacked Yes68c4,412$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.36933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Yes54c4,259$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3005324.5%13 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03b7…430cbacked Yes54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1601457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No29c4,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8407754.5%42 W · 35 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed Yes53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.961442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked No72c3,832$2,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.7624146.1%111 W · 130 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1df…4404backed Yes31c3,722$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.057317.8%13 W · 60 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-66.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x434a…882dbacked Yes68c3,721$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,530.1550%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed No41c3,692$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.7124047.5%114 W · 126 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Yes69c3,623$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5009946.5%46 W · 53 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8f2…22a3backed Yes70c3,560$2,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4813655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f5…e4c2backed Yes69c3,543$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4504930.6%15 W · 34 L-6.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x44c7…62dabacked Yes70c3,429$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes69c3,403$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.925042%21 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d80…cd30backed Yes69c3,333$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3001154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1947…94bcbacked No31c3,295$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275.8429458.2%171 W · 123 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes69c3,260$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.421253.8%114 W · 98 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe831…a42abacked Yes68c3,249$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.193145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked No30c3,248$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,273.62458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Yes69c3,220$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2223348.5%16 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-22.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No33c3,192$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,132.4841437.9%157 W · 257 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4675…d7d0backed Yes55c3,087$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6982045%9 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes53c3,045$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.442832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdefa…2d63backed Yes68c3,022$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes69c3,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07020646.1%95 W · 111 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No31c3,000$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,07018362.3%114 W · 69 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes68c3,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0408531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.