TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4675…d7d0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Serie A, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 54 out of 100; worst Premier League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST2045%9 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$892Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$892
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$132
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+51.5%+$163.3
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,698Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,698
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$66.67
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+49.3%+$44.33
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$343
Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+85.2%+$85.19
Crystal Palace FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$98
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+81.8%+$160.36
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+37%+$92.47
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+51.5%+$51.52
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+60%+$599.69
Fulham FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$125
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+85.2%+$84.33
All 20 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+75.4%+$73.18
Pistons vs. Jazzbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$611Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$611
Suns vs. Pelicansbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+49.3%+$49.25
Bucks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+69.5%+$69.49
76ers vs. Bullsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Raptors vs. Wizardsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Bucks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+104.1%+$155.08
Heat vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+49.3%+$81.27
Raptors vs. Netsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$124
Bulls vs. Hawksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+143.9%+$227.37
All 11 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-12-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.