TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Pelicans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Suns, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,969,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,159,440

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,969,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,470 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2e4…bc51backed Pelicans38c456,289$174,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174,269.8721944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Suns64c305,612$195,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,252.222,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33f6…e0debacked Pelicans36c250,000$90,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,0003033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Suns66c212,954$140,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,310.621,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Pelicans0c198,000$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.6529810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Pelicans39c165,229$64,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,181.5151844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Pelicans0c157,680$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.339018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Suns61c106,431$65,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,038.782,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Pelicans24c75,000$18,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,15038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns62c69,406$43,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,226.319,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans38c56,900$21,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,698.612,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Suns63c40,000$25,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,90019351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns63c36,882$23,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,778.925,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Pelicans32c32,517$10,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,380.3437539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns63c32,152$20,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,017.634,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Suns62c30,000$18,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,5502,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Pelicans37c22,973$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,50010930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Pelicans36c21,000$7,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,57023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Suns63c21,000$13,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,769.9820551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Suns63c19,972$12,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,389.559653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Suns63c19,583$12,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,197.432,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Suns58c19,391$11,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,137.581,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Pelicans1c18,369$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.564517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans35c15,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.931,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a7…8db6backed Pelicans1c14,400$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.094413.6%6 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns63c12,681$7,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,747.52,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…9720backed Suns40c12,602$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,602.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6394…9bb3backed Pelicans2c11,738$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.773565.7%23 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Suns62c11,675$7,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,379.7562351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns62c11,584$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,383.821,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns64c11,273$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,072.483,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Suns69c10,342$7,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,206.0510049%49 W · 51 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Suns73c10,075$7,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,691.0524151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Suns77c9,663$7,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184.7919388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Pelicans31c8,886$2,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,785.2534227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Suns66c8,719$5,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.8985344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Suns62c8,525$5,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,239.3412147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0cc…478ebacked Suns75c8,500$6,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked Pelicans1c8,400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84568.9%5 W · 51 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns63c8,385$5,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.188,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Suns52c8,181$4,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,924.367149.3%35 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc675…2ff3backed Suns63c8,013$5,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,965.013240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Pelicans5c7,565$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.251,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Suns58c7,404$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,143.911,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Suns62c7,308$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,807.3144459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…f34ebacked Pelicans1c7,200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.73224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-49.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b40…d85ebacked Pelicans24c7,087$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.765832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Suns62c7,000$4,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,64045348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Suns60c7,000$4,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.9947043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Pelicans1c6,700$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.91587%11 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick7cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Suns63c6,619$4,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.856,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Pelicans22c6,525$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.783759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe44d…1034backed Suns79c6,456$5,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.882665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Suns63c6,032$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,231.751,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Suns61c5,989$3,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,332.7189050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x92c2…6212backed Pelicans36c5,820$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.08812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-80.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pelicans25c5,625$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.1576850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Pelicans36c5,511$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9849743.3%42 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Suns63c5,505$3,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.1550653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9d…9db6backed Suns64c5,300$3,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,908757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pelicans34c5,262$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.662,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Suns63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8501,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Pelicans36c5,000$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,78017250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae3e…a5f4backed Pelicans37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8501435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec9f…c3fbbacked Pelicans37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8501233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Pelicans36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.988827.3%24 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Pelicans61c4,911$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,995.928343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Suns58c4,888$2,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,035.1219136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Suns63c4,610$2,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.5427758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaddc…ed0dbacked Suns64c4,450$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6221275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Suns62c4,235$2,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.31,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Suns61c4,133$2,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.3372450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6950…86a1backed Suns80c4,116$3,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.524257.1%24 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Suns62c4,100$2,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.9912143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Suns76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9605369.8%37 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae2…98b0backed Suns62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Suns50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00044337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pelicans37c4,000$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.9935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pelicans19c3,986$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.061,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe529…2156backed Suns64c3,900$2,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4044100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Suns65c3,849$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.415352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pelicans1c3,777$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.798820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Pelicans63c3,774$2,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,361.7347856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Pelicans35c3,388$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.7739349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d16…85f3backed Suns64c3,347$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.884742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x310f…2f4fbacked Pelicans38c3,300$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+80.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfda…57f9backed Suns64c3,256$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.164100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Suns65c3,092$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.7216943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Suns77c3,069$2,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.8447856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pelicans36c3,050$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0981,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb0f…74a0backed Suns49c3,033$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Suns63c3,029$1,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.7534456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9eb…ae0ebacked Pelicans39c2,978$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.292552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pelicans29c2,969$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.091,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Pelicans37c2,963$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.3162347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b7…c5fabacked Suns60c2,946$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x242b…ee98backed Pelicans40c2,938$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Suns64c2,919$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.442,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9dd…3cc5backed Suns42c2,904$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.852744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+64.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Pelicans1c2,900$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7513228.8%38 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.