TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Nets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Netsof Raptors, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,719,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,851,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,719,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 992 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Nets41c142,967$58,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,777.8351844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Nets41c134,898$55,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,706.9372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets61c105,545$64,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,646.65,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Raptors42c97,038$40,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,329.2617441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf42…d698backed Nets42c83,000$34,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,139.9417031.8%54 W · 116 L-24.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors59c53,611$31,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,676.682,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Raptors59c45,831$26,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,811.471,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Raptors44c45,166$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Raptors59c41,210$24,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,123.921450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Nets42c41,210$17,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,711.817861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Nets77c40,721$31,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,397.747869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Raptors59c37,245$21,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,974.2645151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Raptors59c34,726$20,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,488.462,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Nets41c34,344$14,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,262.8813455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Nets58c29,692$17,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,515.5618453.3%98 W · 86 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Raptors37c25,343$9,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,329.782,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Nets41c25,000$10,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,649.9819048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Raptors59c25,000$14,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,649.8714244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Raptors20c24,626$5,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,005.151,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Raptors35c23,748$8,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,39021944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors59c22,000$12,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,8854,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Raptors58c20,063$11,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,657.8512147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Nets41c20,000$8,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,799.9951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets51c18,008$9,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,872.954,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Raptors59c17,288$10,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,227.1744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x959a…7b64backed Raptors22c16,139$3,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,548.143357.6%19 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+42%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Nets63c15,071$9,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,530.1646342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1692…831fbacked Raptors48c14,709$7,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,036.96051.7%31 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Raptors60c14,397$8,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,638.0589444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Nets71c13,814$9,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,026.9922458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Raptors31c13,604$4,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,249.261,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Raptors57c13,509$7,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,65047856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Raptors59c13,333$7,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,866.471,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors59c12,975$7,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,596.543,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Raptors59c12,383$7,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,337.3755346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Raptors58c12,040$6,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,983.4716251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Raptors27c11,922$3,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,27518140.3%73 W · 108 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Raptors59c11,110$6,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,591.936741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors60c10,873$6,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,482.272,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Raptors30c10,828$3,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,230.292,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Nets64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60018518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Nets64c9,206$5,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,280.3771547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Nets40c8,861$3,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,316.451,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Nets61c8,736$5,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,407.041,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets57c8,727$4,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,792.663,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ace…3ebfbacked Raptors58c8,638$5,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,01030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Raptors58c8,621$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00011654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…4666backed Raptors59c8,475$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4e…52fbbacked Raptors59c8,475$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors58c8,285$4,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,810.779,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a60…3170backed Raptors60c8,066$4,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,813.9412646%58 W · 68 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Nets40c8,001$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,800.5714055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Raptors59c8,000$4,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,72014945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Nets40c7,702$3,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,582.7138649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8333…eb93backed Raptors59c7,036$4,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,151.033551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff4…ebd9backed Raptors60c7,033$4,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2201040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Raptors58c6,817$3,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,953.983154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Nets65c6,688$4,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.971,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Raptors59c6,500$3,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,82076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Raptors41c6,495$2,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,633.581,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Nets58c6,172$3,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.2852460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Raptors30c5,700$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68513625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9df…249ebacked Nets45c5,407$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.72862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+39.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…1ed3backed Raptors59c5,394$3,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,182.374647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Raptors49c5,102$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50025945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets63c5,059$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,891.163,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Raptors29c5,044$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.461,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Raptors59c4,945$2,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,908.0547043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Raptors59c4,901$2,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,891.81,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8b…15babacked Raptors60c4,834$2,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,916.555843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Nets37c4,673$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,944.0139349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Raptors58c4,478$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,617.7216749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Raptors55c4,092$2,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.951,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Raptors50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00016130.4%49 W · 112 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Raptors50c4,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98010837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Nets42c4,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.9918142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…cab1backed Nets42c3,782$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.842347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cec…1a24backed Nets78c3,726$2,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+103.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Nets39c3,677$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.374748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Raptors59c3,200$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88822637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nets43c3,019$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.672,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Raptors64c3,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9204868.8%33 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Raptors33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.8824151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Nets41c3,000$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.9886641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Raptors57c2,982$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70041954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Raptors37c2,977$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.0485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Raptors60c2,964$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.1135651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nets66c2,950$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ebf…82d5backed Raptors60c2,800$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6803551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37a3…fe17backed Nets40c2,800$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6802250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Raptors59c2,685$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.311,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf168…b80dbacked Raptors60c2,646$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Raptors58c2,616$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.1462351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Raptors58c2,612$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5155971.2%42 W · 17 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Raptors62c2,611$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.8256945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x001c…aa10backed Nets39c2,589$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Raptors58c2,586$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005145.1%23 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Raptors60c2,538$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.817141.5%71 W · 100 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Nets40c2,526$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.2750347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.