NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 216.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5b1e0ac65fa05bc1bdadcefb52b57884fecee13ebe52115ec0fde04cfd86b9

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,753 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under	48c	13,972$6,758 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,214.24	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over	53c	5,500$2,915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,915	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Over	51c	5,000$2,536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,536.43	1,269	44.5%565 W · 704 L	+32.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,550	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	51c	1,472$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Under	52c	1,058$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.69	157	56.7%89 W · 68 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	52c	1,042$542 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.31	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	50c	997$499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.5	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	975.78$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.41	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	47c	763.85$359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$404.84	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc0…a988backed Over	51c	412$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.12	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…a65dbacked Over	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-5.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	48c	361.8$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.91	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Over	53c	262.34$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.04	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	193	51.8%100 W · 93 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Under	52c	200$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Under	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	129	52.7%68 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a8a…b155backed Under	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	628	48.7%306 W · 322 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1d…ff79backed Under	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6611…17e7backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	47c	97.87$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.87	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd7…2055backed Over	15c	84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e8…772abacked Over	55c	75.89$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.74	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.34per pick	59cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ca8…ddddbacked Over	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	278	46.8%130 W · 148 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcede…276fbacked Over	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	64c	27$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.63	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	849	57.6%489 W · 360 L	-52.1wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 216.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event