NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa730a37a5dfcdc978589b8ae6481a054bc2f35b0a1aed16d515fa71c0b2eddbb

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Raptors, Nets
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,789
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,789 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Raptors	46c	7,756$3,538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,537.68	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Nets	54c	5,000$2,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,300	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Nets	55c	1,720$946 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$774	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Nets	55c	1,250$688 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$562.52	211	52.6%111 W · 100 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nets	54c	1,173$633 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$539.38	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Raptors	46c	1,087$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	85	49.4%42 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d0…824ebacked Raptors	45c	980$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Nets	55c	900$495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Nets	54c	834$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$383.64	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nets	54c	687.36$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.19	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors	45c	599.02$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.56	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Raptors	52c	577.29$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	232	48.7%113 W · 119 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Nets	53c	500$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	69	49.3%34 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors	47c	428$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.6	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Nets	56c	400$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors	47c	357.37$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.79	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x621f…c4dfbacked Nets	55c	340$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9cc…26dcbacked Nets	55c	335$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.75	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raptors	44c	318$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.92	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Nets	52c	311.98$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.61	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17b4…03f0backed Nets	55c	305$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.25	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a4…ea47backed Raptors	48c	253.5$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.83	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Raptors	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	83	44.6%37 W · 46 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Raptors	46c	187.5$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.25	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Nets	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	280	46.8%131 W · 149 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors	48c	180.28$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.23	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Nets	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Raptors	44c	178.57$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.57	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Nets	53c	132.08$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.08	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Raptors	50c	113.09$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.46	164	47.6%78 W · 86 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd549…296dbacked Raptors	46c	109.25$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nets	52c	106.42$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.08	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Raptors	41c	89.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.26	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe490…8e6cbacked Raptors	50c	72.64$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.32	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets	49c	66.94$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.14	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nets	52c	64.29$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.56	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Nets	54c	55.09$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.09	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Raptors	46c	52.64$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.21	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Raptors	48c	52.36$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+5.2wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+66.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Raptors	48c	41.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	202	41.1%83 W · 119 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7c…666cbacked Raptors	49c	41.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac8…becabacked Raptors	47c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Nets	58c	36.68$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	1,055	49.9%526 W · 529 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Nets	53c	36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.92	326	49.7%162 W · 164 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Nets	53c	36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.92	272	51.1%139 W · 133 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3839…a64dbacked Nets	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	33	75.8%25 W · 8 L	+7.9wins	+0.24per pick	52cpaid	+48%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc95f…357fbacked Nets	58c	34.49$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.49	168	52.4%88 W · 80 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Nets	55c	25.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Raptors	46c	24.49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc7…31c0backed Nets	55c	21.82$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.82	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca7…6e6ebacked Nets	55c	18.36$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.26	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Nets	58c	18.31$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.69	81	56.8%46 W · 35 L	+9.0wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Nets	60c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	311	44.4%138 W · 173 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event