NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 218.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28e462a005dd065778dd7c9d96f8f8634dbfa9761d6fae4e63840bd6ab2730cc

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,053 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	45c	3,798$1,705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,704.8	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Under	55c	2,364$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,063.64	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	1,718$859 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$859.01	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under	55c	1,707$932 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$775.3	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Over	50c	1,600$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	121	51.2%62 W · 59 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Over	46c	652.17$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	255	54.1%138 W · 117 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Over	47c	383.03$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.72	148	45.9%68 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	54c	330.38$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.04	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f7…ab3cbacked Under	56c	151.79$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.79	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	477	38.2%182 W · 295 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xeea9…329dbacked Under	57c	96.49$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.49	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…4741backed Under	55c	81.82$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.82	60	65%39 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9382…4ee3backed Over	55c	46.09$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f8…256ebacked Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	95	47.4%45 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	51c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	331	47.4%157 W · 174 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 218.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event