NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 217.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa109081d1fcc26da926b9dc274c267352265ee38a89f250fefda573d0411fce

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,820 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	5,495$2,719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,776.06	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over	48c	5,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	51c	4,587$2,323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,263.9	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under	52c	3,341$1,744 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,596.89	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c7…bd87backed Over	48c	2,000$950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$950	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Over	56c	1,779$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Under	53c	1,588$842 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$746.36	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Over	54c	1,411$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.87	416	52.2%217 W · 199 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over	50c	1,358$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	53c	1,132$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$532.04	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Over	49c	697.96$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342	255	54.1%138 W · 117 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Over	49c	575.51$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282	232	48.7%113 W · 119 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	2c	505$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under	52c	370.31$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.75	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Over	49c	367.35$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	258	47.3%122 W · 136 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over	48c	356.25$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over	49c	306.12$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	51c	299.98$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.99	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Over	49c	280$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.2	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Over	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	293	46.4%136 W · 157 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Over	49c	200.08$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.04	189	54.5%103 W · 86 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	50c	180.03$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.29	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Over	48c	144.28$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.25	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Over	55c	136.36$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Over	48c	125$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	52c	105$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.4	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Over	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	628	48.7%306 W · 322 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Over	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Under	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	51c	87.99$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.12	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d43…86e7backed Under	47c	68.15$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.12	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Over	49c	60.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.68	148	45.9%68 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Over	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c27…c99fbacked Over	49c	40.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.94	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	237	53.6%127 W · 110 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ca…e072backed Over	49c	38.16$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30dc…9fa0backed Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-3.3wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb82…c668backed Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under	51c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.64	220	48.6%107 W · 113 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under	51c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.64	238	50.8%121 W · 117 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	53c	36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	331	47.4%157 W · 174 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd2…2b28backed Under	53c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	51c	29.86$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.56	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 217.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event