NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 219.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75698efd5f3777aa9fe377939d7ae2f5aff807419aaf7dc9c8cdf97a274dba77

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,964 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	5,388$2,576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,576.22	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Under	53c	3,775$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,775.2	147	53.1%78 W · 69 L	+8.6wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	51c	2,412$1,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,182	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Over	51c	1,950$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under	52c	1,402$729 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$673	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…4741backed Under	60c	666.67$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.67	60	65%39 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	40c	650$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	50c	155$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.4	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d43…86e7backed Over	48c	68.17$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.72	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3189…8973backed Under	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	49c	39.8$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.3	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	48c	38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c94…1f7dbacked Over	44c	36.46$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	30	70%21 W · 9 L	+4.6wins	+0.15per pick	55cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x95fe…2713backed Over	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd06…cb1cbacked Over	45c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	47c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc2…95c3backed Over	49c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raptors vs. Nets: O/U 219.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event