TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$103,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,890 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes0c21,387$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.474318.6%8 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c3…a6acbacked No52c4,718$2,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1a…a84ebacked Yes48c4,500$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00fe…780bbacked Yes48c4,432$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3338…5550backed No52c4,214$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+174.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56fa…d820backed Yes3c1,941$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.07150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd241…78b0backed Yes2c1,930$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes3c1,578$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.176061.7%37 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes43c1,303$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.291546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8349…69e5backed No57c1,301$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.31475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa692…8ec9backed No56c1,211$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+54.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No57c1,155$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.651258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+58.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdff1…4803backed No48c1,093$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e7…9bc7backed Yes44c1,049$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes43c930$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed No57c903$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.291471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+43.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc0c…6279backed No57c894$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa306…9802backed No70c810$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2451526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-45.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdce3…9d85backed Yes18c705.25$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes56c699.96$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.9845843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed Yes43c683$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.691353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+72.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe6…d8e3backed No56c678$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.321457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes43c668.04$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.8623525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc187…bdf1backed No56c664$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.16875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked Yes44c647$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.682259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd91a…f14bbacked No59c628.62$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.917100%7 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa884…46a8backed No66c602$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes21c582.14$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes24c538.91$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.16018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f3d…9ef2backed Yes44c537$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes48c518.07$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2482626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes10c516.06$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes43c495.99$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.281464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked Yes43c475$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-55.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a29…df67backed No70c433.56$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes25c421.37$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.539920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes43c419$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.171030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed Yes43c419$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.172748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed No57c419$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.171050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked No52c414.61$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.591553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Yes63c402.02$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.22812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-77.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes43c397$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb244…95fbbacked Yes26c376.87$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.675729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No56c325$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1432544%11 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes25c320.8$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9631719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x991d…ad9dbacked No63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb4…e56fbacked Yes44c297.38$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc45…8bd6backed No36c275.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.33850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes32c250.95$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked No67c249.57$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.444245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked Yes44c242$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.481618.8%3 W · 13 L-5.4wins-0.34per pick52cpaid-67.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Yes30c241.27$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.221822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x120e…93f0backed No46c215.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f62…c924backed Yes55c215.25$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…5a58backed No56c211.38$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No44c204.76$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7634440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes12c201.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3826616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes38c199.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7517128.7%49 W · 122 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x670e…1fc5backed No55c182.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4675…d7d0backed Yes57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes44c175$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e9…8e90backed Yes44c173$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.121145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x936f…7f75backed No53c170.14$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df6…0f0fbacked Yes44c167$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+70.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked No56c158$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.521030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed No56c153$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.32757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x326e…c7b9backed No56c151$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes33c149.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7582…2497backed Yes68c146.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa400…ec34backed No56c144$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.36944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb509…c01dbacked Yes70c143.85$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10160%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbdf…c675backed Yes70c143.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes44c138$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.721435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes43c137$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.911741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21a4…0b9ebacked No74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141687.5%14 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick74cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a7…15c4backed No74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+189.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f91…e105backed Yes43c134.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes53c130$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x184f…a48fbacked Yes43c127$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6150%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2573…0c73backed Yes49c123.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes36c122.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.523839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes32c120$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9949…46bebacked No65c119.91$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.59666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed No57c118$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.741145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6432…8616backed No42c115.5$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.983063.3%19 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+40.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed No56c114$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd008…e9dbbacked No57c104$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca1…48aebacked Yes59c101.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95c…01efbacked Yes68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-69.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7321333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes37c98.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.517536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes31c95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.87025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed No57c91$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.131533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed No46c89$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.74866.7%32 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes57c88.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503423.5%8 W · 26 L-7.1wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7329…d562backed No45c86.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.952055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9754…bddabacked Yes35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ee…12a4backed Yes47c85.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed Yes55c82.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.666111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes19c80.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.131344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.