Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc6564c274bd9aec014905ebb1f4de68f584e0de8d47e92f6dc0fffa681a10b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3edf…30f4backed No | 0c | 11,554$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 0c | 10,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 1c | 2,256$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,877$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 8c | 1,832$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…9118backed No | 1c | 1,404$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked No | 2c | 889.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 3c | 527.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 3c | 505$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 20c | 500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8c86backed Yes | 51c | 452.61$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 26c | 384.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 315.19$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.93 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 46c | 235.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.83 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 59c | 232.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 52c | 202.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…edbdbacked No | 37c | 201.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…5c2fbacked Yes | 43c | 177.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 64c | 170$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…a4ddbacked No | 60c | 166.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269e…83debacked No | 62c | 161.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…d022backed No | 36c | 140.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 41c | 130.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…542ebacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 79c | 86.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 53c | 75.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 23c | 75.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 64c | 69.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…6927backed No | 42c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4e…f1aabacked No | 30c | 66.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 58c | 60.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 58.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…15d9backed No | 39c | 55.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 33c | 54.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed Yes | 39c | 53.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e132backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed Yes | 45c | 44.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 60c | 43.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…4d25backed No | 59c | 40.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes | 50c | 39.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…c328backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 32.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…5ca2backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 40c | 30.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe1…ffb7backed No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb54…2c07backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed Yes | 54c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…1c6cbacked No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 67c | 25.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…4716backed Yes | 49c | 24.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…5dc2backed Yes | 53c | 19.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.