TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,132
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,132 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef28…2d50backed No4c10,000$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.835639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No2c8,485$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.717414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…8833backed No2c4,406$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.55633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+690.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed No1c2,781$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed No1c2,369$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7130…773dbacked No2c2,011$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No9c1,776$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.845127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked No1c1,424$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.27287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No12c1,332$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.845330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb19f…25a8backed No3c1,135$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a8f8backed No4c1,017$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No6c884.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0141…c2dabacked No4c870.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.981926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid+33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed No5c801.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9d…a2adbacked No3c755.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes71c739.62$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.7423839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11de…21d7backed No5c700$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.44353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No3c499.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+156.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc51…2bedbacked No75c402.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes28c326$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.435355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No30c305$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5515331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No35c300.01$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.756621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes24c299.98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.4956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes24c296.48$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.0140939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes35c282.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.3617740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe28a…8072backed No75c278.25$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.691662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes37c269.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.836752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes37c268.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8934440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed No74c260$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.41346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No13c230$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.93151.6%16 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.38per pick14cpaid+350.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xab7f…d263backed No9c230$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+37.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5bd…7e75backed No69c219.22$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-66.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes52c218.71$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3614335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes38c212.61$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.393713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-69.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes35c202.52$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5310426%27 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c88…383abacked No63c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No65c199.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32cc…7b1fbacked No78c190.89$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-73.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes27c190$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.71741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b9…a226backed Yes32c189.31$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.325540%22 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked No77c188$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.68944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c99…317cbacked No75c164.34$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2229…e543backed Yes23c162.76$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.76425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed No56c136.66$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.36657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed Yes44c134.76$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.749334.4%32 W · 61 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+72.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes19c132$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.921172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c14…08a5backed No8c128.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-72.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes23c127.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.791931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84dd…586fbacked No71c119.23$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes40c117.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.994429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes25c115.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1331344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc039…e2e0backed No76c115.22$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.111662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+51.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x590a…204abacked No67c111.43$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef32…4847backed No62c110$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe408…677fbacked Yes46c109.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+84.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d39…a718backed No77c108.96$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.99944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e52…0693backed Yes28c108.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.31637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7419428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fbe…2030backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.54per pick30cpaid+214.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.995837.9%22 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c95.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9786542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed No73c95$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick60cpaid-78.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5571…0346backed No76c92.11$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43b6…07aabacked Yes35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes29c77.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2323525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb730…ada5backed No70c76.17$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes35c72.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.853534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b8…7609backed No71c72.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa489…bfa2backed Yes42c70.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d8…7359backed Yes25c70.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507a…c505backed No72c69.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1753…5f48backed No74c67.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1347…0af0backed Yes33c65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+205.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb65d…3341backed Yes30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+200.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No71c59.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.043933.3%13 W · 26 L-7.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No72c56.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.934035%14 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ac6…d659backed Yes36c55.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.091735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes28c52.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.567841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes22c51.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.413342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes31c46.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.352035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes39c45.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5340828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed No69c40.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac99…1380backed Yes26c39.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.594257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…11a1backed No76c39.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb473…e9c9backed No76c35.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid+45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ea…76cabacked No78c34.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.620%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b73…dd78backed Yes40c33.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+45.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8381…29f5backed No60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7baa…9077backed No62c33.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…d3e0backed No76c32.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c53…c46bbacked No69c30.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.94151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5593…c513backed No71c28.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d44…b081backed No74c27.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd777…4ed2backed No74c27.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe930…99aebacked No75c26.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed No76c26.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.274445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No62c26.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1182…b6bbbacked No79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick78cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.